AS THE general election campaign gets under way, a high level of volatility persists within the electorate with one-third of voters likely to change their minds, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI opinion poll. That uncertainty is compounded by the fact that a further 26per cent have not made up their minds; have refused to say or will not vote. Political parties will ignore that explosive mix at their peril.
The poll will bring comfort to Enda Kenny and to Fine Gael as both party and party leader increase their appeal. Since December, support for Fine Gael has risen by a further three points to 33 per cent while satisfaction with Mr Kenny has jumped by seven points to 30 per cent. In the same period, Labour Party support has stabilised at 24 per cent while Eamon Gilmore remains the most popular party leader with an unchanged rating of 44 per cent.
Public satisfaction with Fianna Fáil’s new leader, Micheál Martin comes in at 25 per cent, even as party support falls marginally to 15 per cent. Sinn Féin has lost some of the “bounce” secured by its byelection victory in Donegal South West. Support has dropped back by three points to 12 per cent while satisfaction with Gerry Adams holds fairly steady at 27 per cent. Green Party support has fallen to 1 per cent.
The depth of reputational damage suffered by Government is reflected by a satisfaction rating of 4 per cent. Brian Cowen fares little better with a rating of 8 per cent. While nine out of 10 voters believe he was right to resign as leader of Fianna Fáil, three-quarters also think he should have resigned as Taoiseach. A majority also believes the Green Party should have pulled out of Government earlier. Having turned its collective back on the Government, however, the public remains uncertain about its voting intentions.
Mr Martin may be able to regain some of Fianna Fáil’s ‘core vote’ as one-quarter of those surveyed said they were now ‘more likely’ to vote for the party. However, the threat posed by Sinn Féin remains acute. Having eaten into its traditional support base, Sinn Féin candidates are now most likely – by a considerable margin – to attract second preference Fianna Fáil votes. The party is also well placed to pull support from the Labour Party. Fine Gael is in a happier place in that regard and has gained ground in Dublin at the expense of Sinn Féin. Traditional voting transfers between Fine Gael and the Labour Party also look likely to be repeated on this occasion, with three out of five voters for both parties indicating cross-party allegiances.
There has been a strong shift in public opinion towards Independents and these candidates now attract 15 per cent support in Dublin, where they lead both Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin. This volatility, stemming from a loss of confidence in Fianna Fáil, will shape the composition of the next Dáil. But the campaign is only starting and the outcome is far from certain. Fine Gael and Labour would appear to be in pole position and the election is for them to lose.