Intervention of South African president Thabo Mbeki is the best hope for a positive outcome, writes Brian Mukundi.
LAST WEEKEND, the people of Zimbabwe, in their clearest terms yet, gave Robert Mugabe his marching orders. In spite of pre-election irregularities, a hostile political environment and threats from security men, all independent indications are that there should be a change in power in Zimbabwe. All this happened despite millions of Zimbabweans in the diaspora not being given the opportunity to vote. They would have overwhelmingly voted for the opposition.
And yet, days after the poll, the presidential results have not been announced officially. The parliamentary results that have trickled through have in some instances been inconsistent with those posted outside polling stations where the initial counting was performed. Zimbabwe is now rife with speculation and conjecture, and tension is rising. As the days progress, it seems as if the fate of the country is not in the hands of the people, but in those of the heads of the military, police and intelligence.
Mugabe's genius - and make no mistake, that is exactly what he is - was to link his fate to that of his party. Parliamentary elections were not due for two years. The ruling Zanu-PF party has not been united of late and perhaps a majority of its members did not want Mugabe as their presidential candidate. Fearing that the party would not campaign wholeheartedly for him, he harmonised presidential and parliamentary elections. Now, there are rumours that it is the senior members of Zanu-PF who are fighting hardest to overturn the will of the people. There are a lot of people with a lot to lose if the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and Morgan Tsvangirai take power.
The big question troubling most people is what happens now? There have been reports that the opposition has been in talks with Zanu-PF officials about how to go about transferring power. There are rumours that the president has left the country, rumours that have been fuelled by the fact that he has not made a public appearance since he cast his vote. The South Africans are said to be trying to broker a deal.
Archbishop Desmond Tutu has suggested that an international peacekeeping force be sent into Zimbabwe. And to add to the intrigue, the government media seems to be pushing for a split parliament and a presidential run-off. That would do us all the great service of prolonging this ordeal for as long as three weeks.
Worse, it is not clear that the government has the resources to stage the run-off, and there is no guarantee that it would be a fair contest. The MDC has thrown a spanner in those works by announcing its victory.
Although both sides are denying it, I would be very surprised if there were not talks going on. It must be obvious to the leaders of the ruling party that Zimbabweans do not want them in government any longer. The fact that members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) election monitoring team have criticised electoral irregularities will worry Zanu-PF. They can no longer claim that they are being persecuted by the West.
If they lose credibility among their peers and their neighbours stop supporting them, there will not be much of country to mismanage for very much longer.
The fact that Mugabe, prior to casting his vote, told the world that his conscience would not let him cheat his people only complicates things.
In a lot of other countries, many of those in the ruling elite would be in prison for crimes ranging from those against humanity to corruption and conspiracy. There are also those whose wealth and livelihoods are based on a twisted system of patronage that has helped keep the government in place. These vested interests may find themselves exposed without the cover of the current government. None of these people will easily give up what they have and may be willing to tear the country apart to maintain their positions.
The horrible truth is that Tsvangirai is going to have to dine with the devil and make some sickening compromises if there is to be a non-violent transfer of power, just as Ugandan president Yoweri Museveni has had to make with the Lord's Resistance Army to try to end the conflict there.
I respectfully disagree with Archbishop Tutu's suggestion of a peacekeeping force in Zimbabwe. An armed presence in Zimbabwe would be a disaster. That would just give credence to Mugabe's "the British are trying to take over Zimbabwe" line. That would be perhaps the only thing that would unify the military and rally those on the fence to Mugabe's aid.
Whatever the eventual outcome of such an intervention, an unacceptable number of people would probably die.
The best hope for a positive outcome lies in the intervention of South Africa's president, Thabo Mbeki, and the people of Zimbabwe. Although he has been widely criticised for his policy of quiet diplomacy, it has positioned him perfectly to help resolve this crisis. For the sake of his legacy, I am sure he will try to bring an acceptable resolution. At the same time announcing his victory was a definite show of strength on Tsvangirai's part, and one he needed to make.
All this is speculation, though. Honestly, I doubt that even those in charge of Zimbabwe right now know how things will work out. Until then, all most of us can do is pray that there is a peaceful transition. That is what most Zimbabweans are probably doing right now.
Bryan Mukandi is from Zimbabwe but lives in Galway