A POLITICAL diplomacy of inducement between the European Union and Serbia was put in place yesterday ahead of the Serbian parliamentary election on May 11th. Belgium and the Netherlands agreed to lift their objections to the EU signing a stabilisation and association agreement on condition that the deal is neither ratified nor is aid to Serbia released until it co-operates with the war crimes tribunal in The Hague.
The EU thereby hopes to influence the elections by encouraging Serbian voters to support parties favouring a European vocation for their country, in which eventual EU accession is envisaged. This agreement would allow greater freedom of travel to EU states, and increasing economic and trade relations with them in an effort to stimulate employment opportunities. Given the deep isolation experienced by Serbia's 7.5 million people since the violent break-up of Yugoslavia, this is potentially a very attractive package.
It appeals especially to supporters of parties favouring EU accession. Serbian foreign minister Vuk Jeremic, a member of the pro-EU Democratic Party said "this is not an empty shell, this is an important political statement that the doors of Europe are open for Serbia". But the anti-EU Radical Party and the extreme nationalist Democratic Party of Serbia of outgoing prime minister Vojislav Kostunica both denounced yesterday's agreement, accusing President Boris Tadic, who signed it in Brussels, of high treason for doing so. The scene is therefore set for an intensely emotional final stage of the election campaign. February's presidential election in which Mr Tadic narrowly defeated an ultra-nationalist candidate was a dress rehearsal for it.
That vote was held just before Kosovo declared independence from Serbia. Inevitably that affects the parliamentary vote. This has been made more difficult by the unsatisfactory and partial international recognition of Kosovo, especially among EU member states, a minority of which fear that precedents will be set for secessionist tendencies elsewhere. As a result the UN has not endorsed its independence and the new state exists more in name than reality. There was no realistic alternative to Kosovo independence, given its brutal treatment by Serbia and the determination of its people.
The EU's relations with Russia have played into this complex diplomatic game. They badly need to be put on a better footing. Regrettably EU foreign ministers failed to agree on how to do this. They should try again.