Europe faces a formidable crisis of confidence about the way forward, writes Denis Staunton, European Correspondent, in Brussels.
'France has voted. And France has said No,' declared Jean-Claude Juncker, Luxembourg's prime minister and current president of the European Council of EU leaders as the French referendum result came in on Sunday night.
Mr Juncker, in common with other European leaders, promised to respect the French vote but called on other countries to continue to ratify the constitution. "It is important to know what the attitude of the other Europeans will be. Yes, the constitutional debate is French. But it is also a European debate," he said.
On the face of it, Mr Juncker's call for a continuation of the ratification process makes sense. After all, nine countries, representing almost half of the EU's population, have already ratified the treaty, although Spain is the only member state to have done so through a referendum.
The French debate on the constitution was lively, substantial and wide-ranging but opposition to the treaty was so diverse as to defy simple analysis. Some No voters wanted more Europe, others wanted less. Some favoured more solidarity with the world's poor, while others wanted a halt to immigration. Some called for a more social Europe but others wanted France to move to the right.
"It is therefore impossible to renegotiate the treaty under these conditions. We need to reflect on these French contradictions which are perhaps European ones," Mr Juncker said.
The trouble with Mr Juncker's plan is that the French vote was so decisive and based on such a high turnout that it is hard to envisage a second referendum in the foreseeable future producing a different result. Given that an EU without France is unthinkable, this suggests the constitution has little chance of coming into force in its current form.
In this context, Mr Juncker, who will meet all 24 other EU leaders for individual talks in Luxembourg this week, will have a hard time persuading his counterparts to press ahead with referendums they are likely to lose, on a constitution that may never come into force. Sunday's vote has also robbed Yes campaigners in smaller states of one of their strongest arguments - that voting No could leave them isolated in Europe.
The debate over what to do next will remain muted until after tomorrow's referendum in the Netherlands, not least because no EU leader wants to be blamed for losing that vote. Until Sunday, opinion polls suggested that almost three out of four Dutch voters would reject the treaty; the French result could push the No vote higher as Yes voters stay at home. Only two further referendums on the constitution are scheduled - in Luxembourg in July and in Denmark in September. The Taoiseach, who will meet Mr Juncker on Thursday, says that Ireland's vote will go ahead as planned but no date has yet been set.
Britain's Tony Blair is determined to stop the ratification process and he is likely to win the backing of a number of new member states who face difficult votes on the constitution. According to a declaration agreed by all EU leaders when they signed the constitution, if four-fifths of the member states have ratified the treaty by November 2006 and "one or more members have encountered difficulties" ratifying it, the matter would be discussed at a summit.
Acting unanimously, however, the leaders could abandon this commitment and agree to halt the ratification process or to postpone it until after a "period of reflection" on Europe's future.
Mr Juncker said on Sunday that EU leaders will decide what to do when they meet in Brussels on June 16th for a summit that was supposed to be about the EU's next seven-year budget.
Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's decision to call early elections in Germany has made a budget deal impossible next month so the leaders will be able to focus all their attention on the constitutional impasse.
They will be reluctant to abandon the constitution altogether without putting in place some formal process of consultation about Europe's future. The leaders' problem is that none of their number has the political authority to launch an initiative that could replace the constitution as a route towards a more efficient, transparent and democratic Europe.
No major change is likely before the French presidential election in 2007, leaving the EU facing two years of political stagnation. Economic liberals within the European Commission, led by Britain's Peter Mandelson, believe the best response to the French referendum defeat is a return to the Lisbon economic reform agenda with renewed vigour.
Such a move would be popular in Britain, Ireland and some other member states, notably in central and eastern Europe but could face strong opposition in France and in Germany, even if Mr Schröder is replaced by the Christian Democrat leader Angela Merkel, later this year.
A robust debate about the proper European response to economic globalisation would be useful, although it is unfortunate that José Manuel Barroso's commission has identified itself so closely with one side.
Such a debate would do little to reverse the political damage to the European integration project caused by the French vote and the likely outcome in the Netherlands. Europe faces a formidable crisis of confidence and none of its leaders has a clear idea of how to escape from it.
The French EU transport commissioner, Jacques Barrot, said that Sunday's vote reminded him of the rejection of the European Defence Community in 1954. "Once a project is launched, you cannot abandon it," he said.
Mr Barrot's optimism may be impressive but Europessimists point out that Europe waited more than 40 years for the idea of a defence community to be revived.