Enlargement of the European Union, to take in 10 of the accession states by 2004, is now firmly on the agenda, following publication of the European Commission's annual report on the subject. Rather than a gradual increase in the EU's membership, it seems that a "big bang" approach is more and more likely, as most of the candidates have made unexpectedly rapid progress in their negotiations - although nothing is guaranteed until they are completed. This will represent a major step towards an historic unification of the European continent in peace and prosperity under the rule of law.
That prospect puts Ireland in an increasingly difficult position as the only state which has failed to ratify the Treaty of Nice. Continued progress is expected next year on the outstanding chapters of the accession negotiations. One can readily foresee a scenario in which, by the second half of next year, the 14 other EU member-states will have ratified the treaty and most of the negotiating chapters with the candidates will have been closed. Ireland would then stand alone as the last obstacle to such a comprehensive enlargement. This could well be the context in which a second referendum on the Nice Treaty would be held, if the incoming Government decided it should do so. On it would hang, not only Ireland's attitude to integration, but the future shape of the EU and the continent as a whole.
Those who dispute the necessity of the Nice Treaty for EU enlargement have a number of major questions to answer. The fact that 10 states are now in line for accession, undermines the argument that they could be legally accommodated by the 1997 Treaty of Amsterdam, which allowed only five to join without the institutional changes required for further negotiation. That task was concluded in the Nice Treaty last December by changing the size and composition of the Commission, increasing the use of qualified majority voting and reweighting votes in the Council of Ministers.
This agenda was driven by the larger states which demanded fairer representation in line with their populations before so many, mostly smaller states, accede. Politically, the bigger states have refused to contemplate an enlargement without such provisions being in place. Those who say this could be accomplished without the Nice Treaty, gravely underestimate the political resistance there would be to such a course.
Ireland therefore faces a grave choice about how to proceed. This country is seen as a model for catch-up economic and political development by the accession states. Much goodwill has been lost with them, and more widely in Europe, as a result of the vote against Nice on such a low turnout and with so little political effort to ensure its passage. A much greater mobilisation will be necessary if a second referendum is held. While the National Forum on Europe is doing very good work, it cannot be a substitute for such political will to stay in the mainstream of the EU - thereby defending vital national interests.