The most fascinating electoral contest this year will be that for the mayor of Dublin, writes NOEL WHELAN
IN AN effort to move on from this week’s political theatrics, I want to turn to a more mundane consideration of the electoral contests likely to be held this year. A Donegal South West byelection has been on the cards since last June, an election for a new directly elected Dublin mayor is soon to be legislated for, and now another byelection is also needed in Dublin South.
A consideration of all three contests must come with the usual warning about previous party performance not being a guide to future performance. These elections are single seat contests, where candidates must ultimately attain at least 50 per cent of the vote, and the results are as likely to be shaped by personality and localised factors as by national political trends, whether as measured in current opinion polls or otherwise.
The Donegal South West byelection occasioned by Pat “The Cope” Gallagher’s victory in last year’s European elections is now overdue. There have been longer gaps between vacancies and byelections, but if the seat is not filled before the autumn the Government will be leaving itself open not only to renewed criticism, but even to the prospect of a constitutional challenge.
On the basis of previous general election performances, Fianna Fáil, which got more than 50 per cent of the first preferences in this constituency in 2007, should be favourites to win the Donegal South West byelection. Their support has, however, collapsed in Donegal as elsewhere in the last two and a half years. Even in good times Fianna Fáil has struggled when Pat “The Cope” Gallagher was not on the Dáil ticket. Gallagher will be expected to direct the campaign, and this is also the home constituency of Tánaiste Mary Coughlan, but neither of these factors will compensate for the negative mood the party faces. It is difficult to see any Fianna Fáil candidate winning the seat in 2010.
All byelections in the last 13 years have been won by the strongest “anyone but Fianna Fáil candidate”, and that will again be the case in Donegal South West. On the 2007 general election figures and indeed the 2009 local election figures, this is Fine Gael’s byelection to lose. Fine Gael polled 23 per cent in 2007 by comparison to Sinn Féin’s 21 per cent. Pearse Doherty will again stand for Sinn Féin in the byelection. While he is the best known of the candidates, it is wrong to assume he will win. The outcome could actually be decided by Fianna Fáil transfers. Things will be a lot clearer after Fine Gael select their candidate on Monday night next.
It’s clear that while new Labour candidate Frank McBrearty jnr did win a seat in Stranorlar in the 2009 local elections, Labour, which polled just 3 per cent in Donegal South West in the last two general elections, should not expect to feature in the byelection shake-up.
The most fascinating electoral contest this year will be that for the elected mayor of Dublin. The position should be titled that of Dublin Region Mayor, since the constituency extends across the Dublin City, Fingal, South Dublin and Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown council areas.
This territory accords currently with the Dublin European Constituency, so some idea of the respective party strengths for the new mayoral battle can be garnered from the results of the 2009 European contest.
Last June, Fine Gael’s Gay Mitchell polled 24 per cent, Labour’s Proinsias De Rossa polled 21 per cent, Fianna Fáil’s two candidates polled 18 per cent combined and the Socialist Party’s Joe Higgins polled 12 per cent. In that context, one can see why Mitchell starts as one of the bookies’ favourites to be the new mayor. Ruairí Quinn is the other contender, attracting short odds. Labour has been outpolling Fine Gael significantly in Dublin in all recent opinion polls, so if Mitchell and Quinn end up being their respective party candidates, my money would be on the latter.
Another possibility is that a strong candidate will emerge from among the current Independent or far left councillors or TDs. Mannix Flynn, the artist, abuse campaigner and new Dublin South Inner City councillor is one to watch in this regard.
Bertie Ahern will not run for mayor of Dublin, and if he did he would not win. The likely Fianna Fáil candidate will be someone with local government credentials like former city mayor Eíbhlin Byrne. A more interesting plan might be for Fianna Fáil to run a prominent Dublin backbencher, like Charlie O’Connor. Whoever runs, it can only be as a profile-building exercise.
The Dublin South byelection of the 30th Dáil may also be held on the same day as the Dublin mayoral contest. Labour’s leader in the Seanad Alex White was the early favourite for last year’s byelection until Fine Gael unwrapped George Lee. White is again the early favourite for this contest, and the “buyers’ remorse” of those who switched to Lee should see White elected this time. Once bitten, both Fine Gael and the electorate of Dublin South will be shy of any new high profile candidate, so Dundrum councillor Jim O’Leary is likely to be Fine Gael’s standard bearer and to be the runner-up.
On the Fianna Fáil side, if Senator Maria Corrigan wants another run out or if Rathfarnham councillor John Lahart wants a first run out they will get it in this byelection, but a run out is all it will be.
What with Westminster elections due in Northern Ireland and Great Britain, there will be much electoral sport for us political junkies to enjoy in the months ahead.