A MONTH and a day until the start of all party tales on the future of the North and, as one official busily engaged in try ing to devise ways around the worst obstacles put it recently, "not a child in the house washed."
At the moment, despite the almost daily assurances from both governments, there is an air of unreality about the whole project. Too many questions get in the way. What will happen if the IRA does not call another ceasefire? Or if increased tensions on the loyalist side lead to more than the odd hoax bomb at Dublin Airport? Can the deep mistrust on both sides over the whole decommissioning issue be defused, and if so how?
First, though, and almost ignored in the wrangling over these issues, comes an important political test of opinion in the North. It would be pushing the truth to suggest that the prospect of elections to a new forum has excited popular enthusiasm. The complexity of the proposals has put most people off, though they may yet find themselves presented with a more interesting choice of candidates than has been on offer in the past.
In fact, for the individual going to the polls the task will be simple enough. He or she will be asked to place a single X against the name of one out of a list of 30 parties. The ballot paper will also show the names of each party's candidates in that constituency, ranked in order of the party's preference, and votes cast will be allocated to these candidates on a quota basis. This will account for 90 out of the 110 seats in the forum.
As well as this there will be a regional or "top up" list. All the votes cast across Northern Ireland will be aggregated and the 10 parties which win she most votes will each be given an additional two seats, allocated to candidates on the regional list. (It is on this list that Dr Conor Cruise O'Brien's name will appear for the UK Unionist Party.)
THE main parties will win the bulk of the seats in the constituencies. But smaller groups, which have little hope of winning enough votes in a single constituency to get a candidate elected, are still in with a chance of being on the list of the top 10 vote winners across the North. This will entitle them not only to two seats in the forum, but also to appoint delegates to the June 10th talks.
These ingenious proposals were devised to help the small fringe groups associated with the loyalist paramilitaries win seats at the negotiating table, and to be able to claim that they have an electoral mandate to be there.
It won't be plain sailing. There will be a large number of parties scrabbling for the last three or four places on the "top 10" list. The fringe loyalist groups will be competing not only against each other, but against other small unionist parties. The situation of David Ervine's Progressive Unionist Party is particularly uncertain. The PUP is rooted in urban Belfast and, unlike the UDP, it does not command sufficient support in rural areas to feel confident of securing an adequate vote.
There was a time, before Sinn Fein built up a credible political base, when many nationalists were prepared to support the IRA but voted for the SDLP to represent them politically. There was an instinctive mistrust of anyone who had been associated with violence. This still applies, but more strongly to members of the traditionally law abiding unionist community.
They may be weary of the tribal attitudes of Ian Paisley and David Trimble, and even admire the sophisticated and courageous leadership qualities that have been demonstrated by David Ervine and other loyalist leaders.
It does not follow automatically that they will vote for them. There will be a number of small unionist groups offering themselves in the election, and working class unionists may opt to vote for Bob McCartney, who also offers a non sectarian vision of the Union but does so with all the confident skills of a successful Queen's Counsel.
THERE is another factor which adds to the uncertainty. It is no secret that successive British ministers have been deeply impressed by the quality of men and women who have involved themselves in community politics in Northern Ireland - often because they have deliberately rejected the main parties and have wondered how to bring that steady, responsible pragmatism into the mainstream.
By opening up and increasing the number of groups eligible to stand in the election, the Northern Ireland Office has taken a deliberate decision to encourage this new breed of community activists to become involved in the forum, and also possibly in the all party negotiations.
The most obvious example of a group that could realistically hope to break through the traditional party barriers, and win enough votes to get candidates elected from the regional list, is the newly formed Northern Ireland Women's Coalition.
These women are not dewy eyed idealists who believe that lasting peace can be achieved by the wearing of white ribbons. At the meeting I attended in the Ulster People's College last week there were academics, senior executives in the public service, as well as seasoned campaigners, with long experience of building bridges across a deep sectarian divide. The heart lifts to think how the presence of Bronagh Hinds, of the Women's European Platform, or Margaret Logue, of the Derry Women's Centre, or any of their colleagues, could influence the all party talks.
But the decision to put up candidates presents difficulties. Should the Women's Coalition stand in a constituency where there is another woman candidate for one of the established, mainstream parties? In this case, they say, the acid test is where she is ranked in her party's list. If her name is at the top, the party is serious about wanting her to be elected; if she is ranked number four or five this is a token gesture, designed to mop up any undecided women's vote.
An even more difficult choice presents itself in a case where a strong woman candidate might take votes from a man who has a good track record on the broader political issues. Sadly, this dilemma is acute in areas where the small loyalist groups, particularly the PUP, would hope to command electoral support.
In the Shankill, for example, someone like May Blood, a highly respected trade unionist now involved in job creation in one of the most deprived areas of Belfast, would be an extremely powerful candidate. But if she were to stand, the likelihood is that she would take votes from the Progressive Unionist Party, which is going to need all the help it can get to have any candidates elected.
These are real and difficult choices. Their outcome could determine, and will certainly influence, who gets to shape the political future of Northern Ireland. For all the scepticism that has been voiced about this election, it will shift the emphasis back to democratic political activity and give many people, whose voices we do not often hear, a chance to speak. {CORRECTION} 96050800073