So we have a deal. Sixty-two days on from the election. The likely decision of the Fine Gael parliamentary party, albeit with a heavy heart, to accept the formula hammered out by Taoiseach Enda Kenny with Fianna Fáil means we can expect to see a minority government installed in the next few days.
It is guaranteed a few months life by Fianna Fáil, but how few? How long’s a piece of string? There’s the time it takes to set up a commission, the time it takes for the commission to report, the time to put its report before a Dáil committee, for it to debate the matter . . . 2016, 2017 . . . who knows, perhaps even into 2018.
“What the country needs is an effective, stable government, capable of dealing with vested interests and capable of building on the economic recovery that is under way,” we suggested here a few days ago. In this Fine Gael minority government, will we have one? It’s difficult to believe, given the cynical spirit in which it has been conceived, that this one can last.
This may be a new form of government, but noone should imagine that we are ushering in a ne-w form of politics. The negotiations have had all the hallmarks of old politics, a squabbling over policies, mainly water taxation, that has less to do with principle or what the country might need than with clear partisan political advantage.
Fianna Fáil knows as well as the rest of us that in the end the taxpayer will have to pay for water. It has contemplated introducing a water tax, it even supports the principle, it could contemplate it in the 33rd Dáil . . . but not the 32nd. Fine Gael is less concerned with a last-ditch defence of Irish Water and the principle of “polluter pays” than saving face. This is, after all, the fence at which so many of its candidates fell. And then, of course, there’s the not insignificant matter of Enda Kenny’s survival as party leader .
With an eye over its shoulder at the looming threat from Sinn Féin and Independents, Fianna Fáil was desperate to craft a formula that would give it cover. And what we have is classic fudge. It's the oldest trick in the "old politics" playbook – faced with a deadlock, set up a committee to kick the problem down the road. "New politics", it would appear, involves setting up an "independent" committee to report to a second committee, which is not even bound by the recommendations of the first.
And it looks like some of the Independents will back the minority government and take some of the flak from Fianna Fáil. Watch this space for the constituency favours they will yet extract for their support .
It might be tempting to suggest that we would all be better off – Enda Kenny excepted – to give the voters another chance. A new election, however, would probably not produce a different result. Better to muddle on.