Time is getting short to establish fair conditions for the referendum on the future of East Timor on Monday next. The United Nations Mission in East Timor (UNAMET) has called on the Indonesian army to arrest militia bands opposed to independence. International monitoring organisations report that serious violations of human rights are continuing despite the overall success in registering some 430,000 voters. Tens of thousands of people have been intimidated or displaced by these militias in an attempt to sway the result. Concern is also growing that they will be encouraged by the army to provoke civil war in the event of a vote for independence. No provision has been made for an international force to oversee a handover of power. So far as the Indonesian government is concerned, the vote is consultative and will not be confirmed until November when the new people's assembly convenes in Jakarta after this summer's election of a new president. There are many indications that the army's hand has been strengthened during this period of political drift. It is clear too that the army leadership opposes independence because of vested interests in the occupation of East Timor built up since they forcibly annexed it in 1975 and for fear that it would set dangerous precedents for other territories in the vast archipelago.
The next few days will determine whether conditions have been established to allow a fair vote. Supporters of independence are loath to demand a further postponement, given the huge political uncertainty in Indonesia. It will fall to UNAMET to decide whether there has been sufficient scaling down and disarmament of militias and reduction of intimidation to allow a vote to take place. Many international observers will be there to oversee the voting, including the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Andrews, who is also special representative for the European Union. The fact that the Indonesian army is responsible for security remains the most unsatisfactory part of the UN arrangements. That they will continue to hold that responsibility for four months following the referendum is being increasingly recognised as unacceptable and provocative. Contingency plans to provoke civil conflict in the wake of the voting have been reported in the Australian media. So has the rejection by the Australian government of a proposal to put a multinational peacekeeping force on the ground immediately after the vote. Such a force has the backing of the United States government, which fears East Timor could otherwise collapse. Mr Andrews should add his voice, and that of the EU, to put pressure on the Australians to change their minds, and on the United Nations Secretary-General, Mr Kofi Annan, to take urgent action. Any attempt by the Indonesian armed forces to sabotage a referendum result in favour of East Timor independence should be brought immediately to the Security Council as a subversion of its mandate.