Ten years on from the revolution that toppled Nicolae Ceaucescu, Romanians are still confused as to its objectives and depressed about the failure to achieve real political or economic progress in the intervening years. In retrospect his overthrow takes on more the appearance of a coup by one section of the communist regime against another rather than the liberation which many had hoped for. Continuing factionalism, corruption and growing poverty are disillusioning realities which cast doubt on the promise held out by the recent invitation to negotiate on joining the European Union.
The Romanian revolution was distinctive for its violence, in which 1,000 people died, including the execution of Ceausescu and his wife. It led to a a period of rule by the ex-communist Ion Iliescu whose National Salvation Front failed to introduce thoroughgoing reforms for a legal free market economy. They were continually postponed, leading to a rapidly expanding black market and a collapse in living standards.
Iliescu's centre-right successors have also failed to address these problems effectively. As protests by trade unions and others against half-hearted market reforms, privatisations, high inflation, corruption and unemployment have mounted in the last two years there has been little coherent response from governments which found that the very integuments of the state are collapsing as a result of the failure to collect taxes.
It is little wonder that the European Commission described Romania's economic and political position as bleak in its last report on progress in preparedness to join the EU. Since then the Helsinki summit this month put the country firmly on the list of accession states. A new government sworn in last week after the prime minister was sacked is pledged to tackle these major economic and social problems and the complex negotiations with the EU. But the president, Mr Emil Constantinescu, had to admit it will have few resources with which to alleviate collapsing living standards. It is an inauspicious start to a year in which parliamentary and presidential elections will hinge on the new government's credibility.
The coalition comprises Christian Democrats, Social Democrats, Liberals and ethnic Hungarians. It will need sympathetic international attention, not least from the International Monetary Fund, if it is to consolidate its rule and introduce reforms. If they fail Mr Iliescu's party is still attracting majority support based on a populist authoritarian appeal and utter frustration with economic and social disintegration. The subdued mood at last week's anniversary of the popular uprising fully reflected these facts. Next year will see a race between reforms and popular reactions in which there is precious little room for compromise.
These circumstances make for difficult political choices and a deep alienation between rulers and the mass of Romanian citizens. Many have taken to crime or emigration as a result, with consequences felt all over Europe (Ireland included) as Roma peoples and others impoverished by falling livings standards and inflation seek a better life elsewhere. Other Europeans certainly have a stake in a more stable and equitable outcome, since a lurch to authoritarianism in Romania would affect neighbouring states, not least Hungary, improved relations with which has been one of the most notable successes over the last ten years. For all the failings of economic policy, relations with Hungary have greatly improved as the ethnic Hungarian party joined the coalition following the conclusion of a treaty dealing with minority rights. It will be up to the new government to find the will and means to tackle Romania's pressing problems.