No matter how the latest Chechen crisis is resolved by a successful Russian military assault on the rebel band in the village of Pervomaiskoye or a humiliating failure to capture them and save the hostages they are holding the whole episode has been a disaster for President Yeltsin and his chances of being re elected in June. The decision to crush the Chechen independence movement by force over a year ago has become a symbol of Mr Yeltsin's ineptitude and ineffectiveness. The latest crisis, with the outcome unclear at this writing, has reinforced the image. It has made him react according to a calculus of pride and determination, strength and weakness.
This helps to explain why there has been such a uniformly hostile attitude in the new Duma in Moscow towards Mr Yeltsin's decision to order yesterday's assault. Much of it is opportunist, taking advantage of the Chechen war's great unpopularity among Russian voters. Only the far right nationalist, Mr Vladimir Zhirinovsky, explicitly backed the action. And the President appears to have courted support from that end of the Russian political spectrum in deciding to launch it. This is in keeping with his appointments of a new, more hard line Foreign Minister last week and of a much more reactionary figure as chief of his personal staff yesterday.
The political context in which this latest Chechen crisis has occurred is altogether clear, despite the indefensible seizure of hostages and hospitals by the rebels and the counter terrorist means and rhetoric employed by Mr Yeltsin. The unfortunate peoples of Chechnya and its neighbouring republic of Dagestan are pawns in a larger political game. A significant indication of how events may unfold came yesterday with the announcement that Mr Grigory Yavlinsky's Yabloko party is to sponsor a vote of no confidence in the President's handling of the crisis, which he denounced in the name of democracy and human rights. He is one of the President's main allies when it comes to economic reform. If this marks a decisive break between them it could signal that ex communist or nationalist opponents of reform will be able to take advantage of the division and gather sufficient support to win the presidential election.
If they do so, the larger political game will become part of an even wider international one. Events in Russia could determine the shape of European politics and security in coming years. The decision to use force against Chechen rebels, a conflict in which up to 50,000 people lost their lives last year, represented a reversion to imperialistic and oppressive methods within the Russian Federation. Its use sends shudders down the spines of those in Russia's near neighbours who have recently achieved independence; and it raises similar fears among leaders in central and eastern Europe, who are demanding security guarantees, including rapid Nato enlargement. The key to resolving these fears is a return to peaceful negotiating methods by Moscow on all fronts, with a readiness to recognise genuine independence movements.
Western leaders will have to re examine their implicit commitment to Mr Yeltsin as guarantor of the Russian reform programme and the preferred presidential victor. These latest moves raise the question of whether he and his entourage will forsake power peacefully if they are defeated at the polls.