A new contingent of Democratic hopefuls is currently gearing up in the hope of repeating Bill Clinton's achievement in 1992 by unseating a president amed George Bush, writes Conor O'Clery
No one can beat President Bush in the next presidential election. He's too popular. The Democrats have only seven dwarfs to run against him. That's what we were told back in 1991, just after the 41st American president, George H W Bush, won the Gulf War. The big Democratic players declined to take on the colossus, leaving the field to the dwarfs, one of whom, Bill Clinton, emerged to win the White House.
Now, another generation of Democratic hopefuls is gearing up to try and repeat history and see off the 43rd president, George W Bush, in 2004. The younger Bush's popularity might plummet yet because of mishandled economic issues, as happened to his father, or over a mishandled war on terrorism. With Osama bin Laden still at large, Americans may want to replace the sheriff who failed to capture him "dead or alive".
The scene is a familiar one for the Democratic Party, which has a history of highly competitive races for presidential nominations and whose eventual nominee often emerges only late in the campaign.
Al Gore having taken himself out of contention, the field has widened, not narrowed. The top Democrats don't want to make the same mistake as in 1991 and the outsiders feel the nomination is up for grabs. Gore's former running mate, Senator Joe Lieberman, a pro-business moderate, yesterday became the latest senior figure to declare his intentions of raising the $30 million needed to run in next year's primaries. At this point the Connecticut senator holds a narrow lead, with 20 per cent support in a recent poll, four points clear of closest rivals Dick Gephardt and John Kerry. History, however, is against Lieberman. In seven of the 10 Democratic contests since 1952, the early front-runner failed to win the nomination.
Dick Gephardt got in ahead of Lieberman two weeks ago. The House Democratic leader has a big network of supporters and has strong ties to organised labour, making him a formidable candidate, but he has a record of failure in pursuing his ambitions. History is against him, too. No sitting House member has been elected president since James Garfield won in 1880.
Much smart money is going instead on John Kerry, who has the benefit of the initials JFK. The Massachusetts Senator filed the necessary papers early in December and contemplates a triumphant victory appearance at next year's Democratic convention in his home town of Boston. A Vietnam war hero and a liberal in the Kennedy mould, he is the richest candidate by far, having married Teresa Heinz, who inherited a fortune of $600 million.
Of the outsiders, the first to declare way back in early 2002 was Howard Dean, a medical doctor and former governor of Vermont, who has visited 28 states in a tough struggle to win name recognition. He is a media darling with a good record on healthcare and education, but has earned the enmity of the religious right for granting full legal rights to same-sex couples.
ANOTHER liberal who will definitely not win but who will grab headlines is the newly slim the Rev Al Sharpton, the African American civil rights activist who sees 2004 as an opportunity to oust the Rev Jesse Jackson and "take on the mantle of black leadership". His endorsement will be important as he can deliver a sizeable black vote in crucial states like New York.
The most Clinton-esque of all the early runners is Senator John Edwards of North Carolina, a wealthy and ambitious trial lawyer from a modest background who entered the race as champion of "regular folks" two weeks ago. Edwards is the party's golden boy, a southern moderate with telegenic good looks.
Then there's multi-millionaire centrist Senator Bob Graham, a hawk on terrorism and capital punishment and former governor of the key state of Florida, who has harboured presidential ambitions for years. As ranking Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee he is getting a higher profile on television these days and will announce his intentions this month. These names have been around for a while and contain few surprises. But there are some dark horses out there.
RETIRED 4-star army general Wesley Clark of Arkansas has been to New Hampshire, the first big primary state, to criticise the Bush Administration's handling of events since 9/11. Currently he is doing military analysis for CNN, which he would have to give up if a candidate, so he mightn't declare his hand until the Iraq crisis is over.
Anti-war Congressman Dennis Kucinich has been pressed to run by liberals since a speech last February arguing that it was "patriotic" to dissent from anti-terrorism measures used by the Bush administration. Liberal writer Studs Terkel has promoted him in The Nation as the best hope for the left wing of the Democratic Party and a "Draft Kucinich" movement will help articulate the anti-war message, if little else.
Senator Chris Dodd of Connecticut, a passionate liberal who has taken courageous stands such as closer ties with Cuba, is also eyeing the White House and has promised to "make a decision at the appropriate time". A clue to his intentions: he has made political trips to 21 states in the last year. There is also a movement to promote Gary Hart, a rising political star until 1987 when caught with his mistress Donna Rice, photographed in a pleasure boat named Monkey Business. With American voters more desensitised to such episodes since the Clinton years, a comeback is possible. An idealistic Harvard graduate whom he met at Oxford, Will Polkinghorn, was the first to ask him to run. Hart's reaction was: "Will, sober up", but the former senator is now seemingly intoxicated with the idea and will deliver several policy speeches this spring to test the waters.
And then there is Hillary, who makes Democrats who loathe Bush breath a little more quickly. Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton has said she is not running as she promised New Yorkers she would serve her full term in the Senate, which expires in 2007. But she said in 1999 she would never run for the Senate and did. Polls among Democrats put her first in any list. A "Draft Hillary for President" effort is not to be ruled out, but may not be wise: in an independent poll in October, seven in 10 Americans said they would never vote for her as President. Her time as the Snow White among the dwarfs may come in 2008.
But for now, if no one has a chance of taking on Bush in 2004, maybe everyone does.