The first week of the election debate has been dominated by the public finances. The parties have traded accusations about their various plans for tax and spending, culminating in last night's failure to agree a basis for appointing an independent group of economists to adjudicate on the plans.
Such an analysis would certainly prove interesting. However we are at risk of having a campaign dominated by a debate over obscure economic concepts, rather than by the really important issues.
There are important arguments surrounding the parties' plans for the public finances. It is vital that whoever wins power has a clear strategy in this area and that their numbers add up.However, the projections being offered should carry a severe health warning. They could be thrown off course by any number of events. For example, most of the parties assume steady economic growth of 5 per cent plus, each year. This is not completely unrealistic, but it is optimistic. Slower growth, or any kind of economic shock could throw the projections completely off course. The precise projections are therefore of limited importance.
So how should we judge the party's programmes? What is important is what the parties see as their priorities and how they plan to deliver on them. Voters can get some indication of parties' economic priorities from their manifestos: Fianna Fáil is emphasising investment in infrastructure, part-funded by a new agency; Labour is willing to raise some taxes to pay for higher spending; Fine Gael promises a mix of higher spending and some tax reductions; the PDs promise further sale of state companies and are committed to keeping tax low.
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As the debate continues, it is important that the parties set out clearly what their priorities are within their programmes. For example, if the public finances evolve less favourably than they assume, what will they choose to do? Fortunately, none are calling for borrowing to fund day-to-day spending. But if the finances are tighter, are they committed to holding overall borrowing down? How would they strike the balance between tax and spending?
Economic policy is also about managing public spending to get best possible value for money - about delivering on plans. Under the outgoing Government, for example, current spending has increased by around a third over the past two years, but the level of service to the public has not improved commensurately. Public-sector pay is under pressure. The National Development Programme has fallen behind, more because of planning and implementation difficulties, than because of a lack of cash. Management of the public service and investment planning are thus key issues.
It is time now to focus the economic debate on these areas . We need to hear the parties' priorities for policy and how they plan to ensure that they are achieved.