Another bank holiday weekend, another looming carnage on the roads. Come Tuesday the deadly impulse that makes drivers throw caution to the wind will again have taken its grim toll. But the scale of the tragedy need not have been.
Today, belatedly, the Minister for Transport, Mr Brennan, will unveil the details of his extremely limited penalty points system, under which drivers will face disqualification for six months if caught speeding six times in a three-year period. Yet, had the Government moved quicker to implement in full a points system as part of its robust 1999 strategy, The Road to Safety, there are not a few who would have been alive on Tuesday who may die this weekend.
This year so far 321 have died on the roads compared to 328 by this time last year. In the three years from 1999-2001 the annual fatality rate has stayed virtually unchanged - 413, 415, 411. And yet, had the Government's own realistic target of a 20 per cent reduction in fatalities by the end of 2002 been met by the vigorous campaign it promised, the picture could have been very different. By year-end it is likely that at least 20 to 30 people will have paid the ultimate price for the delays in implementing an effective strategy.
The big picture is still terrifying. In the last quarter century the number injured on the road every year rose from 8,406 to 13,319 in 1996 and started to decline gently to 12,043 in 2000. The message is clear - although more likely to survive your encounter with Irish drivers, you are 50 per cent more likely than you were in 1987 to be injured on the roads.
Although Mr Brennan's penalty points system has been described by Garda sergeants as unworkable because of poor resourcing, it deserves, in the absence of an immediate alternative, to be given a chance to convince drivers that they are likely to be caught and will pay a painful price for speeding. That, Australia's experience proves, is the way to change behaviour.
But the emphasis on the prosecution of speeding offences will also reinforce the strange imbalance in police priorities which currently means that for every drunk driver detected the average Garda books 18 speeders. Yet one third of deaths on the road are attributable directly to alcohol.
Mandatory breath-testing and the rapid expansion of the penalty points system to all 62 proposed offences - Mr Brennan has pledged as much in 18 months - are vital.
Drive safely this weekend.