ANALYSIS:THE 72ND Fianna Fáil Ardfheis, which opens at the Citywest Hotel in Dublin tonight, takes place at a time of peril in the nation's history. The country will be looking to Taoiseach Brian Cowen and his Ministers for some gleam of hope that the Government is capable of charting a way through the crisis.
In his leader’s address tomorrow night he will have to speak to the nation and not just to his party, demonstrating a clear sense of what needs to be done. Cowen should not be expected to come up with Obama-style rhetoric but he does need to communicate a coherent message. No matter how well he speaks, there is no guarantee that a cynical electorate can be persuaded to row in behind him, but the Taoiseach desperately needs to get people to understand the scale of the crisis.
Cowen has always revelled in the role of being a Fianna Fáil tribal leader but this weekend he needs to reach beyond the party faithful and persuade people of different political hues, and none, that his Government is doing right by the country. In the current atmosphere of suspicion and gloom that will be no easy task. On the narrower front the Taoiseach also has to put a bit of fight into his own troops.
For a start they have to understand the truly awful scale of the economic crisis facing the country so that they can grasp the necessity for the current measures like the pension levy as a first step. A range of equally unpalatable, and probably much worse, measures await down the line but at the very least Fianna Fáil members need to be mobilised to defend what has been done so far and prepare the voters for what is to come.
The June local and European elections will be a huge test for the party. The dominance it has exerted over Irish politics since 1932 will be well and truly tested in June but, if the party’s tradition means anything, it will not go down without a fight.
Resolutions to be debated tomorrow will give Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan the opportunity to outline the Government’s strategy. The first resolution in the finance section couldn’t be more supportive but others are more contentious. One calls for the ardfheis to oppose any move towards a residential property tax to plug the gap in the public finances while another calls on Lenihan to implement as a matter of urgency a strategy to help first-time buyers with large mortgages. Other resolutions call for moratoriums on bank loans and a cut in the pay and expenses of politicians.
Reconciling the contradictory positions of the motions and getting delegates to back a coherent financial and economic strategy will test Lenihan’s ability but the most important task facing him is to inspire confidence that he is in control.
There has been some discontent at the way the party has gone about selecting its local election candidates. Democratic norms have effectively been put to one side with candidates, including sitting councillors, having to go through an interview process with party headquarters rather than having to contest local selection conventions. The objective is to broaden the party base and get more women and young people as candidates.
The last local elections of 2004 saw Fianna Fáil emerge not that far ahead of Fine Gael with something in the region of 310 councillors across the country.
Fine Gael managed to pass out Fianna Fáil in the number of European Parliament seats in 2004 and there must be a real prospect of the same thing happening in terms of council seats this time around.
The real danger for Fianna Fáil is not just that it might slip behind Fine Gael but that it could experience a thrashing in the two electoral contests. A collapse in support would leave the Government in no shape to implement the measures so badly needed over the next few years.
That could spell the destruction of the Fianna Fáil-Green coalition with whatever unforeseen consequences might arise.