ANALYSIS:The Taoiseach wants guarantees and possible opt-outs in return for trying to ratify the treaty again, writes Jamie Smith.
TAOISEACH BRIAN Cowen began a whistlestop tour of EU capitals yesterday to win support for an emerging plan to solve the dilemma posed by Ireland's rejection of the Lisbon Treaty.
He started his trip with a visit to Europe's longest serving leader, Luxembourg's Jean-Claude Juncker, and later met Europe's most powerful leader, German chancellor Angela Merkel. Today he travels to Britain for talks with Gordon Brown before ending this latest round of consultations in Paris with a tete-a-tete with French president Nicolas Sarkozy.
Cowen will be asked the same questions by all of them: will you try to ratify Lisbon again? When? And what guarantees do you need to address the Irish people's concerns?
"Europe needs to know how it should proceed with the European elections next year. Should these be held under the rules of the Nice treaty or under Lisbon? We need to know whether and when the treaty can be adopted in Ireland because it has implications for a range of other issues such as enlargement policy," says a spokesman for the French presidency of the EU, which wants an answer at next week's EU summit. Cowen has so far refused to confirm reports that the Government will agree to hold a second referendum. But with the Czech parliament due to begin ratifying Lisbon next Tuesday, which will bring to 26 the number of EU legislatures that will have backed the treaty, he will feel Ireland's isolation keenly around the table at the European Council.
Cowen's dash around EU capitals (he visited Helsinki and Stockholm last week) is an attempt to win political support for a package of legally binding guarantees and possible opt-outs from the treaty that he wants in return for a personal pledge at next week's summit to try to ratify the treaty again.
"He will drive a hard bargain seeking legally binding guarantees or there will be no commitment to re-run the referendum," noted one Irish source, who pinpointed concerns over the reduction in size of the European Commission, social/ethical issues, neutrality and tax as key areas where Cowen needed agreement.
Almost all EU leaders desperately want to put an end to the institutional wrangling over the EU's rule book that has dragged on for much of the past eight years. Most will want to help Cowen in any way they can as long as the guarantees that he seeks do not require the treaty to be re-ratified in any member state that has already completed the ratification process. But they want Cowen to provide a date for a new referendum to provide some clarity over the appointment of the next European Commission.
Under the current rules in the Nice treaty, the number of commissioners appointed to a new EU executive in 2009 must be less than the number of EU states. Under the Lisbon Treaty this reduction in the size of the commission was postponed until 2014 and many EU diplomats are concerned that if Ireland cannot ratify Lisbon then there will be a huge row over which states won't get a commissioner under the Nice rules.
"This provides a real deadline for Cowen to hold a referendum. It should be October 31st, 2009, which is the day the term of the current commission comes to an end," says Antonio Missiroli, director of the European Policy Centre think tank, who adds that October is the most likely date for a second referendum. He says Irish fears over the proposed reduction in the size of the commission, which were highlighted in the first referendum campaign, should be accepted by other EU leaders eager to find a possible escape route for the Lisbon Treaty.
"No one wants to lose their own commissioner, even the big states like France and Germany. A compromise is possible on this," says Missiroli, who notes it is also technically possible without amending the text of the Lisbon Treaty and sparking the need for any re-ratification.
This can be done through a political declaration by states that commits them to triggering an existing clause in the Lisbon Treaty that allows for the retention of the right of every member state, including Ireland, to nominate a commissioner post 2014. The requests by Cowen for legally binding guarantees to cover other areas of concern such as social/ethical issues, neutrality and tax will be more difficult to achieve. Irish diplomats want EU states to allow Ireland to follow a similar model to that of Denmark when it rejected the Maastricht Treaty in 1992. Under this model all other EU states signed a declaration enabling Denmark to opt out of EU policy areas such as defence, the euro and justice affairs when the next EU treaty was implemented a few years later.
Cowen will ask his fellow EU leaders to allow Ireland to use this type of mechanism to introduce legally binding guarantees such as protocols in the future. Diplomats point to the Croatian accession treaty (which will be required to confirm Croatia's EU entry in 2010/2011) as the possible vehicle for introducing the type of legally binding guarantees that can't be inserted into Lisbon without the need for re-ratification.
This mechanism would provide the Government with the type of legal clarity that may assure voters about Lisbon. But persuading other EU leaders that Ireland should be given these types of legally binding protocols, particularly if they are perceived as providing a special benefit to Ireland, could prove tricky. Over the course of the next week Cowen will learn if his EU partners are prepared to give him what he wants.