INSIDE POLITICS:After two years in office, the Taoiseach's very poor public image belies some important political achievements, writes STEPHEN COLLINS
THE ABIDING impression of Brian Cowen’s two years in the Taoiseach’s office is of a man weighed down by his country’s woes. In the Dáil and outside it his glum demeanour appears to give expression to the enormous scale of the problems confronting the Irish people.
The exuberant reception he received in his home county of Offaly in May 2008 now seems like a dream from the distant past, as do the widely entertained hopes of a new era of openness and plain speaking in politics after the doublespeak and evasions of the Ahern years.
The Taoiseach’s greatest failure has been his inability to find the words required to inspire people at a time of deep crisis and give the kind of leadership necessary to reassure people that the country’s problems are capable of being solved.
“Brian simply doesn’t have the language to lift his own TDs, never mind the public. He is stuck in a bureaucratic mode of expression that doesn’t connect with people,” said one backbencher.
His other characteristic is an innate caution that has characterised his Dáil performances, his approach to social partnership and his dealings with the media. It manifested itself in the minimal Cabinet reshuffle before Easter which caused such disappointment among his backbenchers. Allied to the morose exterior he usually presents to the world it has fuelled the view that he is incapable of giving the country the leadership it needs.
And yet when it comes to deeds rather than words, policies rather than image, Cowen’s Government has implemented a raft of tough measures that have pulled Ireland back from the brink of disaster, at least for the moment.
It is worth recalling that not much more than a year ago this country was regarded by international financial markets as being in a worse condition than Greece. By forcing through deeply unpopular measures, such as public service pay cuts and the Nama plan for the banking crisis, Ireland has dragged itself out of the relegation zone, although it could slip back very quickly if there is any sign of a loss of nerve. The Greek tragedy is a stark example of what can happen to a country if government and society do not face up to ingrained structural problems. The Taoiseach’s dilemma is that he is suffering all the unpopularity that goes with the tough medicine while getting none of the credit for leading a Government that is broadly doing the right thing. That credit for what is being done right in the crisis is going to Brian Lenihan while Cowen is getting the blame for all that has gone wrong.
A huge part of the explanation for this is that Cowen cannot shake off his share of the responsibility for the country’s plight. He was minister for finance between 2004 and 2008 when the boom ran out of control with such devastating consequences. The Opposition will never let him forget it and neither will the public.
Cowen continues to insist that nobody could have anticipated what was going to happen and he frequently and correctly points out that the consistent thrust of Opposition criticism between 2002 and 2007 was that the government was spending too little, not that it was spending too much.
Nonetheless, his whole demeanour suggests that he is gripped by a feeling of
guilt that he did not do things differently when he was in Finance and take firm action to try and rein in the boom. He cannot escape the fact that it was on his watch that the public finances and the banks went out of control.
While the measures to rescue the economy have reassured international financial markets Cowen and his Ministers have got little thanks from the electorate at home. It would be foolish of them to expect much gratitude, given their role in the genesis of the crisis, but the Taoiseach himself must take some of the blame for the failure to communicate the achievement.
In his dealings with the media Cowen has consciously decided not to follow the example of Bertie Ahern and make himself available to cameras and microphones day in and day out. He clearly has no patience with the “soundbite” side of the modern media and doesn’t disguise his attitude to it. There is something dignified about Cowen’s refusal to engage in the endless round of meaningless events that appealed to his predecessor, but he hasn’t devised an adequate alternative strategy.
In the current age of mass communication every prominent political figure needs to be able to deal with the media in order to survive, but Cowen has failed to come up with a consistent strategy. Every so often he can deliver a passionate speech to rouse an audience but he doesn’t do it often enough; and his television appearances convey an impression of weariness.
A feature of Cowen’s political make-up is his fierce loyalty to Fianna Fáil. Opponents often accuse him of putting party above country and while he has strongly rejected the charge it is something that has cushioned him against internal dissent. His TDs believe that he would certainly put the party’s interests before his own.
Ministers say that he is much more impressive around the Cabinet table than he is in the Dáil, encouraging open discussion on major issues and ensuring that everybody has their say. This contrasts with the Ahern era when many decisions were taken outside the cabinet and simply brought to the table to be rubber stamped.
A more important distinction with the previous era is that his Ministers feel they can rely on Cowen’s loyalty and support in the face of public controversy. “Brian is utterly loyal, even to his own detriment, and he would never throw you to the wolves just because the media is baying for blood,” said one Cabinet colleague.
Cowen’s closest confidants are the Ministers he promoted on his accession two years ago, rather than advisers or party officials. Brian Lenihan was appointed to Finance for his communication skills as well as his ability and the two men have remained politically close, despite some differences on the strategy for dealing with the public finances, particularly when it comes to social partnership.
Cowen tried might and main to avoid the breach with the unions even to the extent of toying with the ludicrous proposal for extra leave days as an alternative to pay cuts. His credibility suffered a huge dent as a result of that but he is still anxious to keep the unions on board through the Croke Park deal. The apparent U-turn on public sector pension reform is the latest manifestation of the Taoiseach’s desire to cling to social partnership even though some of his Cabinet colleagues now regard it as the problem rather than the solution.
The Taoiseach is very close both on a personal and political level with Batt O’Keeffe, his surprise choice for promotion to Cabinet two years ago. O’Keeffe has shown both political courage and skill in his time at Cabinet and is someone Cowen trusts implicitly.
Cowen’s other surprise choice for a big promotion two years ago was Mary Coughlan and he has stood by the Tánaiste in spite of a lot of criticism from the media and indeed from party colleagues.
Some backbenchers say Cowen pays far more attention to a small group of cronies in the party, with whom he socialises, than he does to the broad spectrum of opinion. “At parliamentary party meetings you can see the boredom on his face when TDs and Senators try to express their views about the state of the country. You feel that he can’t wait to get away and be with his coterie of pals,” said one backbencher.
For all that, Cowen has shown himself to be a very successful political manager when it comes to keeping the coalition with the Greens on an even keel. He would not be naturally sympathetic to some of the Green concerns but he has established a good working relationship with the party’s Ministers at the Cabinet and established a basis of trust with them.
The political achievement of keeping the Greens on board during a time of such economic upheaval should not be underestimated even if the Greens have their own obvious reasons for staying in office and avoiding an election for as long as possible.
The next election is something that both Cowen and his party have to weigh up very carefully. For a start, his TDs have to decide whether they are willing to let him lead on into the next election or whether it might be better to change to a potentially more popular figure. At this stage there is no evidence that a significant number of TDs want a change, nor is there a sign that any of the potential rivals wants to take over.
Getting Fianna Fáil in good order through a campaign and out the other side in some sort of reasonable shape is the challenge facing Cowen, or any alternative leader. Fianna Fáil has little chance of retaining power but every chance of suffering a meltdown, so avoiding that fate is now the political imperative.
His colleagues have not forgotten that Cowen was instrumental in turning the tide in the final week of the last election campaign and they are hoping that his combative debating skills may prove more effective in an election battle than in the normal cut and thrust of political debate.
Cowen has often been compared to Gordon Brown and the UK prime minister’s plucky rearguard action throughout the British general election campaign is a model he could usefully follow. To do that he needs to put on the kind of energetic and good-humoured public display that has eluded him most of the time over the past two years.
Stephen Collins is Political Editor
