As the preliminary operations of the war on Iraq began yesterday, international attention focused on how long the conflict will last and what will be its consequences.
Many are the voices hoping for a short war with minimal damage to civilians - but even President Bush has to acknowledge that it may not turn out this way. More and more attention is now being paid to ensuring that there is an internationalised set of guarantees for humanitarian aid, reconstruction, the governance of Iraq and trust funds for its oil resources. These arrangements must not be decided solely by the United States and Britain, who have mounted the attack.
Even though the United Nations has been wrongly and unacceptably sidelined by their decision to go to war without explicit Security Council authorisation, the world organisation should have a central role to play after the fighting is finished. This was spelled out by Mr Tony Blair in his speech to the House of Commons earlier this week. It has been taken up by the Greek presidency of the European Union in its preparations for the Brussels summit, which began last night.
This is a constructive approach, which could form the basis for a UN role in post-war Iraq. It would minimise the dangers inherent in the policy of regime-change pursued by the Bush administration. But the wounds caused at the UN and in the EU may well have gone too deep to be addressed effectively in the short term.
It will be easier to agree on humanitarian aid than on a reconstruction which many EU leaders believe would not be necessary if more time had been allowed for arms inspections.
A long-drawn-out war in Iraq would destabilise the region by drawing in powers such as Turkey and Iran. It would provoke terrorism and cause untold suffering to Iraqi civilians. Whatever the course of the war, it is essential that multilateral plans are put in place now to ensure that such dangers are minimised.
The hard right-wing ideologues who are so influential in the Bush administration may try to target Iran, North Korea and Syria after subduing Iraq. Such a dangerous momentum from this war can be countered only by a determined effort to ensure a continuing role for the UN. That task would be made much more realistic if there were to be a more coherent EU approach to foreign policy. This has been one of the great casualties of the Iraq crisis - provoked indeed by these same ideologues to ensure US hegemony.
Nevertheless, as President Chirac said yesterday, the development of the crisis "will be heavy with consequences for the future". It will have a profound impact on Europe (including on Ireland) irrespective of the war's outcome, making a more unified approach essential.
Visualising how this can be achieved in the midst of such discord is difficult indeed. But that is precisely why it must be addressed without delay.