BY 2012, the midpoint of the life expectancy of Britain’s coalition government, few anticipated the Liberal Democrat party and its leader would both have become so unpopular, so quickly. As junior partner in coalition with the Conservatives, the party finds itself divided under Nick Clegg. He was an inspirational party leader in opposition, but one whom the British public has become deeply disenchanted with in government.
Since the 2010 general election Mr Clegg’s net approval rating, then strongly positive (+58 per cent) has undergone a dramatic reversal: it is now even more strongly negative (-61 per cent). On current trends the party is facing electoral obliteration at the next election, unless the Lib Dem leader and deputy prime minister manages to reinvent himself, and can rescue his party by 2015. The odds, however, are against success, raising doubts about his survival as party leader.
Nevertheless, for Mr Clegg the fightback has begun this week at the party’s annual conference in Brighton. There, a resolute party leader promised no more fiscal pain for the public, with a new emphasis on raising taxes to ensure the rich pay their “fair share”. The party finds itself increasingly divided by the coalition experience. A minority would have preferred to share power with Labour; others feel the party should not be in coalition, and a reduced majority back the party’s continued participation in government.
Mr Clegg has suffered the fate of many inexperienced political leaders who have swept into power on a wave of popularity, but who later find themselves overwhelmed in government, when faced with a range of unpalatable choices. They promised a new style of politics while greatly underestimating the challenges that governing in the age of austerity present. For Mr Clegg, his breach of faith with voters on tuition fees has been his undoing. He agreed to raise student tuition fees, despite signing a pre-election pledge not to do so. His belated apology last week for breaking his manifesto promise has been widely ridiculed and parodied.
For the junior partner in any coalition, in Ireland as elsewhere, the challenges are much the same. The minority party enjoys representation in government out of proportion to its parliamentary size. There, it can exercise disproportionate influence on policy. But it can attract disproportionate, at times unfair, blame for coalition failure. Here, given the unprecedented size of Fine Gael and Labour’s parliamentary majority, no coalition was ever better placed to meet the economic challenges. And yet all too often, it has lacked the courage and resolution necessary to success – exemplified by the recent debacle on public service allowances. For Mr Clegg and his party, the risk in the relationship with their Tory coalition partners is that each party will neutralise the other on more and more issues: Tory backbench opposition to reform of the House of Lords is reciprocated with a Liberal veto on planned changes to the House of Commons boundaries. If escalated, the result will be a paralysis of government: a coalition in office, but no longer in power.