Obituaries for Hillary Clinton this week were swapped for victory reports, writes Elaine Lafferty
IN 2004, Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry's campaign was challenged by a group of Vietnam veterans who said the senator had lied about his military service. The so-called Swiftboat Vets disputed Kerry's heroism and his accounts of combat. The group filmed a documentary, raised $26 million and ran television ads.
A number of Kerry advisers told the senator he needed to fight back, immediately, even file a lawsuit against the group. The patrician politician from Massachusetts said no, he would not dignify the charges with a response. He insisted the smear wouldn't stick. It did, he lost, and the term Swiftboating became a verb in the lexicon to describe a scurrilous political attack.
One of those advisers met Senator Hillary Clinton privately early in this campaign season to determine if he would join her campaign. He brought up the Swiftboat matter and asked Clinton how willing she would be to fight back, to react quickly and to be aggressive if she was attacked.
"I thought she'd pull a pistol out of her purse right there in the office," the adviser joked. "Totally different than Kerry. A tough candidate and, no matter what happens during the campaign, in a tough election, it always comes down to the candidate."
That's what America saw on Tuesday night when Hillary Clinton came from behind, yet again, to win the primaries in Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island. Despite a bickering campaign operation, variously described as one of the worst run in history, and a national media so enthralled with Barack Obama that reporters themselves are fodder for comedic parodies on television, Americans saw a candidate who has resurrected herself through a combination of sheer grit, determination, stamina and keen political instinct.
To those who are scratching their heads this week, wondering what happened to the previously scheduled funeral for the Clinton campaign, there is really only one response: It's the Candidate, Stupid. It is her personality that is carrying this campaign.
Some political pundits are despondent. Andrew Sullivan, prominent author of several books and assorted screeds, was in such despair on election night that he wrote on his blog that he'd just consumed a shot of jager and was planning to get drunk. His later headline was "The Clintons Win Ohio".
When Hillary wins, it's just too painful for some in the media to acknowledge that it is she who is prevailing, not Bill Clinton, who, despite coverage to the contrary, is actually not on the ballot.
As the latest round of obituaries were being written for the Clinton campaign this week, she somehow did not get the memo to quit. She just kept doing what she does. She showed up, continuously, at campaign rallies in both states. She criss-crossed the country to appear on popular television shows.
Perhaps for the first time in the campaign, Barack Obama faced some actual criticism and questioning from the press. His campaign stumbled when they denied that his economics senior adviser had ever held a meeting with the Canadian government concerning free trade agreements - (later acknowledging that an adviser did have such a meeting.)
Obama continued to decline to discuss the extent of his relationship with a shady Chicago developer whose trial on criminal charges began this week. He also grew testy when reporters persisted in asking him questions during a rare news conference.
In all, he was the dominant person in 69 per cent of presidential campaign stories, according to a study by Project for Excellence in Journalism, which studies 48 different media outlets. That's the biggest percentage one candidate had received in any week this year.
So far this year, so-called "late deciders" have voted for Obama. That also changed on Tuesday. Clinton won nearly 60 per cent of those voters who decided in the last week. She continued to have a strong lead over Obama among women, 54 per cent to 45 per cent and she increased her support among men. Women outnumbered men in the Democratic primary, 59-41, making their support for Clinton all the more significant.
African-Americans, who made up 19 per cent of the voters, continued to support Obama by huge margin: 89 per cent to 11 per cent.
So now it comes down to maths vs. momentum for both campaigns. Clearly shaken, the Obama campaign is now talking a lot more about maths and delegates than it is about change. Obama has the lead in delegates and will likely continue to hold that lead, but neither candidate, no matter what happens in the April 22nd Pennsylvania primary, will have enough delegates to win going into the August convention.
So unless one of them withdraws, the votes of the so-called Super Delegates, elected party officials mostly, will decide the nominee. Some Democrats are calling the next six weeks the death march to Pennsylvania, so worried are they about the tone of the campaigns. That is probably hyperbole.
But in fact, there are two things to count on now: There Will Be Blood. And the truism holds in the end, It's The Candidate, Stupid. Count Hillary out at your peril.
Elaine Lafferty is a New-York based journalist. She spent several weeks leading up to Super Tuesday, February 5th, working with the Clinton campaign