IT IS now evident that there will be no escape from the severe impacts of global warming. This week’s international scientific conference on climate change, hosted by the University of Copenhagen, heard the latest alarming prediction from some of the world’s leading scientists that sea levels could rise by one metre or more by the end of this century. Their estimate nearly doubles the figures for sea level rise projected by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change just two years ago, and is based on mounting evidence that the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets are melting much faster than anticipated. All low-lying coastal areas, including many cities throughout the world, would be threatened by catastrophic flooding if the scientists are right.
Much of the Netherlands lies below current sea level, so the potential casualties obviously include Amsterdam and Rotterdam. But other parts of the world would also be prone to catastrophic flooding. Neither would Ireland be immune; all of our coastal cities, particularly Dublin and Cork, would be on the frontline.
A rise of one metre or more in global sea levels would be quite disastrous in itself. But research on climate change over the past 20 years, confirmed by the increasing frequency and severity of “extreme weather events”, shows that ever-increasing surface temperatures will lead to more intense gales and hurricanes. These, in turn, will produce massive storm surges, magnifying the effect of higher sea levels. And with more and more people moving to coastal areas, the number affected by flooding disasters will run to many millions; it has been estimated that at least 10 per cent of the world’s population – about 600 million people – live in the most vulnerable areas.
The real irony, of course, is that the people least responsible for the greenhouse gas emissions causing climate change will suffer the most. Commenting on the new scientific research presented in Copenhagen, Oxfam International said the “startling new predictions” on sea level rise “spell disaster for millions of the world’s poorest people”. And it called on the developed countries to accept their responsibility to make deep cuts in emissions “to prevent these cataclysmic predictions becoming a reality”. Even if the United States and other developed countries heeded this call, we may still need to resort to engineering solutions to “refreeze” the polar ice caps, for example.
It is likely that the economic downturn will bring down carbon emissions worldwide, particularly if it persists for a number of years. But governments cannot be complacent and must work towards a low-carbon recovery to ensure that emissions do not resume an upward trajectory once economic growth resumes. Politicians everywhere need to show real leadership by “stepping up to the plate” in Copenhagen next December at the 15th UN conference on climate change. If we are to maintain a safe climate for life on Earth, it is vital that this conference produces a global agreement to steer every country on the path to environmentally-sustainable economic development in the coming decades.