There is a casual expectation of conflict with China in Taiwan these days, according to the latest reports concerning the status of their relations. Last month the Taiwan president, Mr Lee Teng-hui, enraged Beijing by suggesting that in future their relationship be conducted on a "special state-to-state" basis rather than within the strict limits laid down by the "one China-two systems" insisted on by the Chinese government. Since then there has been major sabre-rattling by the Chinese armed forces.
The casual note belies the seriousness of what is at stake. Mr Lee put forward his new formula in the context of a constitutional revision but with an eye to presidential elections next March. In Beijing it is feared that it could be a step on the way towards Taiwanese independence, perhaps by using a referendum procedure now being written into the constitution for the first time. Mr Lee's proposal is set to become part and parcel of the election campaign. He has had to take account of political facts, such as the growing strength of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party which favours independence and of dissident elements within his own nationalists who want to see a more robust attitude taken towards China. There is also a near-universal belief in Taiwan, now that it has become a functioning democracy, that the one China formula is no longer appropriate to its circumstances. Taiwanese do not consider themselves subordinate to Beijing in the manner of Hong Kong, a former British colony.
That is why there has been so little enthusiasm among Taiwanese leaders for reopening political talks with China based on the assumption they are a renegade province - despite pressure to do so from the United States. The US is none too pleased with Mr Lee's initiative, which it regards as provocative and likely to upset its own relations with Beijing. Washington stuck firmly to the one China formula after Mr Lee's proposal was made; but it is committed to defend Taiwan if it is attacked or blockaded, as it did in the last such episode in 1996, when the Chinese armed forces were humiliated. Now there are demands in Taipei that the anti-missile defence system proposed by the US to protect Japan and South Korea from attacks by North Korea be extended to Taiwan. The tension comes at a time when China's leadership is under pressure from a variety of sources. The bombing of its embassy in Belgrade unleashed great popular anger, which could have been directed against the government at a time when it is celebrating 50 years of communist rule - but also the 20th anniversary of Tiananmen Square. For all the economic success of its reform programme there are consequent losers, millions of them, among the people displaced from state monopoly employment. The leadership's sensitivities are illustrated by the decision to ban the autonomous cultural-religious sect, the Falun Gong. There is also uncertainty about its relations with Washington after reports of military espionage. All this makes a recourse to nationalist rhetoric more likely.
China's armed forces are anxious to assert their role within the regime by a nationalist gesture. But they have limited options in their dispute with Taiwan if they are not to expose their military weaknesses and upset the geopolitical balance in the region. The Taiwanese would do well to remember that wars can happen when countries become too casual about their conflicts.