There is a formulaic quality about China's latest threat to use force against Taiwan. It has been delivered ahead of next month's presidential elections in which relations with China loom large. During the last such campaign, in 1996, similar warnings led to shelling and the deployment of US aircraft carriers in the Chinese Straits. But a new and more aggressive note is apparent on this occasion, with a military threat against the island if there is indefinite delay in negotiations aimed at reunification.
Stark warnings to begin unity talks or face attack contradict current norms of international diplomacy and inter-state behaviour; they are a sharp reminder that this issue has considerable potential to destabilise the east Asian region just as it is recovering from the shock of its collapsing tiger economies two years ago. As it happens both China and Taiwan escaped the worst excesses of that crisis. That fact moderates this ratcheting up of the conflict, since they have worked together to weather that economic storm.
They both have much to lose if it goes out of control, especially in the field of investment, trade and international economic relations as China strives to join the World Trade Organisation. Taiwanese leaders say such economic internationalisation, together with democratic change in China, will create conditions in which their political relations could be improved and even resolved. They reject the standard formula of one China-two systems applied by Beijing, on the grounds that they are not a colony like Hong Kong or Macau, which have recently reverted to Chinese sovereignty. But they are divided on a more appropriate formula, between the Nationalist party which accepts the perspective of eventual reunification if the conditions are right, and the Democratic Party which advocates independence. Each have candidates in this election, together with a third independent one, a former Nationalist.
The Chinese warning, contained in a white paper from the Communist Party leadership in Beijing, is clearly intended to influence voters. Similar warnings in 1996 bolstered the position of the winning candidate, Mr Lee Teng-hui, in favour of Taiwan's claim to political parity. The threat to use military force if negotiations are indefinitely delayed adds a new condition to Beijing's demands, which have previously hinged on rejecting any declaration of independence or foreign military interference. This reflects the military's recently stronger position within China's power structure. Most Taiwanese reject confrontation with China but have no interest in or readiness for rapid reunification. They accept their government's policy that it must await gradual democratisation of China's political structures. Beijing would be better advised to row along with such a gradualist approach than force the issue with the ultimatums contained in this white paper.