IN A massive display of military might, amid heavy security, hundreds of thousands in Beijing will today celebrate the 60th anniversary of the foundation of the People’s Republic of China. Sixty years ago, as China’s new communist leaders lined up on the balcony of the Gate of Heavenly Peace in Beijing’s crumbling Imperial Palace, Mao Zedong told China and the world, somewhat prematurely, that a century of turmoil, famine and war was over. “Our work will be written down in the history of mankind,” Mao promised. “It will say: ‘The Chinese, forming a quarter of humanity, have risen.’ Let the reactionaries at home and abroad tremble.” Today, contemplating China’s century, Mao’s successors will feel vindicated as they celebrate the remarkable economic success of his legacy of “socialism with Chinese characteristics”, a cocktail of capitalist economics and Stalinist “democracy”.
It has been at a heavy cost in terms of lives, not least in the politically-induced famine of 1958-61 during which probably some 36 million died, the brutal years of the Cultural Revolution and later in the tragedy of Tiananmen Square. And, despite improvements, the human rights situation today remains of serious concern – democracy activists, religious practitioners, internet campaigners, the Falun Gong and Tibetan and Uighur nationalists all face harassment and imprisonment.
But in the last 30 years, China has been transformed. It is now the world’s third-largest economy, after the US and Japan, the biggest exporter on the planet, passing out Germany recently, and has the world’s largest foreign exchange reserves, a staggering $2 trillion. Its GNP will overtake Japan’s by 2010 and perhaps that of the US by 2020. It is the workshop of the world, producing two-thirds of all photocopiers, microwaves and shoes; 60 per cent of cell phones; 30 per cent of personal computers; and 75 per cent of children’s toys. It is the world’s largest recipient of foreign direct investment.
The Chinese central bank urged caution on Tuesday that the economic rebound is not yet on a solid footing. But surveys of executives show that the government’s 4 trillion yuan (€400 billion) stimulus programme and loose monetary policy are succeeding in generating confidence. Chinese factories ramped up both output and jobs in September to meet a fresh increase in orders. China is leading the world out of recession.
That economic confidence is reflected in a new political and diplomatic assertiveness. President Hu Jintao told diplomats recently to break from Deng Xiaoping’s quiet diplomacy of recent decades, summed up in the slogan “conceal brilliance, cultivate obscurity”. Now they are urged to “work hard to make our country more politically influential, more economically competitive, build a more congenial image and make it more morally inspiring”. And the transition to a new world order in which China is playing an ever more crucial, central role in the mainstream of the world community was again highlighted at the meetings of the Group of 20 and UN General Assembly last month. The 60th birthday is a milestone in China’s coming of age.