Since President Nixon decided on a sweeping reconstruction of US policy towards communist, China nearly 30 years ago, culminating in 1979 with full diplomatic recognition, the keynote for most of the international community has been Realpolitik. China will not be changed by being totally excluded from international contacts, as the US discovered during 20 years in which Its own relations with much of south east Asia were soured by its attitude towards Beijing - which extended to a ban on importing goods manufactured in other countries containing components originating in China.
In spite of China's record in the field of human rights and the widespread condemnation of its exploitative methods of cheap production, the policy of opening up is a more promising one than the alternative of confrontation. The Government, in conformity with this approach, has insisted that no official contacts will take place with the vice president and prime minister of Taiwan, Mr Lien Chan, though his visit today will not be entirely private. Beijing has rigorously held the line on non recognition of Taiwan, and the diplomatic battle between the mainland and the offshore island, filled as it is with nuances, shared ambitions and a degree of economic co operation, is not an issue in which other countries can expect to become involved with impunity.
Pope John Paul's decision to receive Mr Lien earlier this week reflects the Vatican's continuing recognition of Taiwan thus ruling out a new relationship with Beijing - and its perpetuation of the post war choice which proved so ineffective. Under the present Pope, the Vatican has pursued an extraordinarily flexible diplomatic policy, playing a useful role in the post communist evolution of central and eastern Europe and establishing links with former communist states many of them non Catholic or non Christian. The link with Taiwan is particularly awkward for the Vatican in view of the handing over of Hong Kong to China at the end of June, since it will not be able to speak on behalf of local Catholics at a time of great uncertainty.
Taiwan itself has considerable interest in developments in Hong Kong since for the last seven years, off and on, it has pursued a policy of "one China two governments" in its contacts with Beijing. The first attempt at negotiation fell foul of the bloody repression - of democratic protesters at Tienanmin Square in June 1989. Progress has been hampered by a dispute over the status of talks, the Taiwanese wanting them to be between the two governments, Beijing insisting that they should be between ruling parties. The level and frequency of contacts has increased, invective and threats continue, and Taiwanese businessmen have stepped up investment in mainland China.
Obviously any move towards detente should be encouraged. Several incidents of tension have occurred in the last two or three years - notably the severing of cultural and commercial relations by Taiwan after the murder of 24 Taiwanese tourists, relations improving when Beijing convicted and executed the murderers and paid compensation to the victims' relatives. A number of steps towards normalisation have been, taken, interspersed with sabre rattling. A negotiated settlement is still a long way off, but it is not outside the bounds of possibility.