THE LAST act was being played out yesterday in Abidjan in Laurent Gbagbo’s desperate but futile bid to cling to power following defeat in November elections. But the welcome ousting of the thuggish former president, who refused to accept the result of a poll widely endorsed as fair by international observers, has come at a heavy cost.
More than 1,500 civilians and combatants have been killed in the violence that has riven Ivory Coast since November, up to 800 in a single massacre in the western town of Duékoué. Up to one million have fled the killings, many to exile. Sidelined UN peacekeepers could do little to protect civilians – on Monday they belatedly responded to shelling and sniper fire with French helicopter gunships.
The disputed elections were intended to be the culmination of a lengthy peace process that began after a rebellion in 2002 followed by a two-year civil war which had divided the largely Muslim north, home of “legitimate” President Alassane Ouattara, and the Christian south. A Gbagbo-stacked court claimed to have discovered substantial electoral irregularities and deemed him – campaign slogan “we win or we win” – re-elected. Since then, despite international pressure, sanctions and mediation attempts from the African Union (AU), the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and the UN, Gbagbo has held out, sustained by most of the country’s military and gangs of supporters who have terrorised the capital.
However, the real danger now is that Ouattara’s ill-disciplined troops, blamed for the Duékoué massacre, and a combination of sectarian tension and an understandable desire for revenge may lead to a pogrom of Gbagbo supporters. It is crucial that, as the International Crisis Group is urging, the UN Security Council and ECOWAS step up to the plate urgently by providing for a renewed mandate for the 9,000-strong UN contingent (UNOCI) already in the country, and for reinforcements from the region to ensure protection of human rights under a new government.
Gbagbo’s defeat also sends an important signal around the region in a year when Africa’s electoral calendar is exceedingly crowded – 20 presidential and legislative elections, including Nigeria, Congo, Cameroon, Uganda, Zambia, Liberia, Egypt and, possibly, Zimbabwe. Leaders tempted to assume they can ignore popular rejection with impunity and continue to rule without a mandate will find they are out of step with Africa’s increasingly democratic climate.