The overwhelming catastrophe of the refugees has moved centre stage in the Kosovo crisis as NATO's bombing campaign continues despite the Serb offer of a ceasefire over the Orthodox Easter period. It is entirely right that this should be so, since the refugees express and symbolise what the conflict is all about. Brutally expelled from their country, they face a grim choice between seeking refuge in neighbouring states, being settled further afield in Europe, and for those of fighting age, joining the Kosovo Liberation Army which is fast recruiting amongst them.
Mr John Bruton, in a well considered critique of NATO's miscalculations, has pointed out that its leaders were warned that such a catastrophe would happen if the bombing campaign went ahead. Serb army and police units had been positioned in Kosovo for weeks; the air attacks dramatically accelerated their gruesome work of killing and expulsion. The effective execution of the plan has given the Yugoslav President, Mr Slobodan Milosevic, a decided advantage in the war, which air power alone cannot reverse. There is no indication that NATO leaders are willing to use ground troops capable of doing so.
At this stage of the conflict, diplomacy is given short shrift by NATO's leaders. They have summarily refused to respond to the Serb declaration of a ceasefire for the Easter period. They demand that the expulsions be completely reversed, that war crimes tribunals be free to judge those responsible for atrocities and that Yugoslavia adhere to the Rambouillet accords, including the presence of a NATO force in Kosovo. These demands, while correct in principle, are used to bolster the air of bombardment rather than open up diplomatic negotiations. Conciliatory gestures such as the promised release of the three captured US airmen are not being taken seriously. This is regrettable.
The idea of a ceasefire to explore a restoration of diplomatic negotiations and the return of the refugees has much to commend it. Certainly, the Serb offer is hedged with unacceptable conditions. But the alternative to talking now is a massive escalation of air attacks and a probable destabilisation of surrounding states such as Macedonia, Montenegro and Albania. The very nightmare of regional disintegration feared by Western leaders as a consequence of Kosovo independence, is now unfolding as a result of the refugee crisis.
Political ends and military means are deeply at variance in NATO's strategy; there is little evidence that Milosevic will be gravely weakened or encouraged to negotiate by air power alone. Reports that the frontiers with Macedonia have now been closed to refugees and talk by Serb diplomats of their willingness to restore a multi-ethnic society in Kosovo are cynical indeed in the light of the realities on the ground. But they do indicate that a diplomatic agenda is possible.
Diplomacy would certainly be better served if the refugees can stay in the region as a standing expression of the inhuman crime of war, rather than settled elsewhere in Europe. Such was the consensus emerging as EU interior and justice ministers met yesterday to consider these options. Once decisions are reached, every effort must be made to accommodate and care for those displaced while efforts continue to find a political solution to the crisis.