In a sure sign that they despair of Mr Bob Dole's chances of defeating President Clinton, Republican strategists are shifting their attention to the races for the House and Senate. They are using the argument that Mr Clinton should be denied a blank cheque by a Democratic congressional victory. It appeals to a strong tradition of ticket splitting in the US electorate, a preference for shared rather than one party control of Capitol Hill.
It may even appeal secretly, to6, to Mr Clinton, insofar as he has defined himself with respect to the Republican Congress. It is widely recognised that he has handled relations with the House and Senate since the 1994 landslide in a masterly fashion. He has blamed the majority for blocking his legislation; but it has enabled him to practice an artful tactical plagiarism by adopting many of their more moderate, ideas as his own and simultaneously distancing himself from the rhetorical excesses of the radical right wing personified by the House Speaker, Mr Newt Gingrich. This strategy has contributed in no small measure to Mr Clinton's substantial lead in the opinion polls and to the growing confidence with which his team approaches the final stages of the campaign.
Tactical voting, which would share support for a Democratic presidential vote and a Republican congressional one, would appeal to a significant element in the electorate. Ironically, Mr Dole's more moderate policies and image could hand the victory to a number of Republican congressional candidates, just as he loses the presidential race. It will be intriguing to see whether popular disenchantment with the Gingrich wing of the party will nonetheless give the Democrats a double victory. According to authoritative observers, the races for the House and Senate are too close to call.
Although Mr Gingrich's "Contract with America" looks a sorry sight after popular support for it collapsed during the tactical manouevring with the White House over last year's budget, it would be a mistake to assume that it has been altogether defeated. On the contrary, many thoughtful conservatives believe that while they lost that battle, they may have won a more important war. Mr Clinton's policies on welfare reform and dependency, law and order and the end of big government and big spending represent a genuine swing towards conservative positions, even if Mr Dole's campaigning has had to represent it as insincere and hypocritical.
This is not the whole story, of course, for Mr Clinton has still managed to balance this shift with continuing concern for traditional Democratic constituencies and liberal policies. Many see this as mere opportunism; but if the polls are right and he is reelected to a second term he will have an opportunity to demonstrate that it has a greater coherence, even that it pioneer a modernised centre left approach to the politics of the next century. We would expect to hear a lot more of this kind of rhetoric during a second Clinton term.