NEVER say never is a cardinal rule of politics. But it is beginning to look like mission impossible for John Major and for Britain's Conservative government.
The Prime Minister came out fighting yesterday as his party pondered the reality of its "second worst ever" performance in Thursday's local elections. Mr Major is never more tenacious than when his leadership and authority are on the line. He conceded that the loss of more than 500 councillors was "disappointing." But Labour's victory was exaggerated by the stay at home protests of Tory voters. The government would work harder to make them realise what was at stake.
"The issues are very simple", declared Mr Major. "We are making people better off, Labour would make them worse off. We like Great Britain as it is. Labour wants to break it up. We will fight Britain's corner in Europe. Labour will not. You only have to look at the economic statistics to see that our policies are working. And over the next few months Labour will be forced to reveal how they will pay for their policies. When the voters compare our policies to theirs, we will win the next election."
In late night early morning interviews Michael Heseltine and Dr Brian Mawhinney had hammered home the same message. Armed with a modest improvement on last year's worst ever" showing, the deputy prime minister and party chairman claimed the beginnings of a Tory recovery. Mr Heseltine insisted the Tories had been here before, losing the local elections in 1986 and 1991 before, going on to win the general Election's of the following years. Dr Mawhinney mocked Labour's failure to amass more than 44 per cent of the vote. On a low turnout and with their tails in the air, Labour, he claimed, had "peaked too soon".
BETWEEN them, Mr Major, Mr Heseltine and Dr Mawhinney spired to look as a serious political party should. They'd anticipated the worst, prepared a coherent defence, stuck to the agreed line, and turned their fire on the opposition. But it was too late in the day. For "the opposition" within their own ranks had done their worst in the fortnight before England's voters headed for the polls on Thursday.
Tory managers had tried to concentrate on the alleged waste and extravagance of Labour local authorities. But their efforts were drowned out by the sounds of Tory warfare at Westminster. Already enraged by the extension of Spanish fishing rights, Tory MPs railed against the injustice and "illegality" of the European ban on British beef. But underlying the protests was the debilitating knowledge that Mr Major and his ministers had botched the crisis.
Amazingly, ministers allowed suggestions of a British counter ban on European beef to fly, before sounding the retreat. Sixty six Tory MPs voted to curb the power of the European Court. Four members of the cabinet (admittedly on a free vote) joined the successful Tory rebellion against Lord Mackay's Divorce Bill. Mr Norman Lamont and Mr John Redwood paid homage at the court of Sir James Goldsmith, as Lord Archer admitted the tycoon's Referendum Party could cost the Tories 23 seats in the general election. Panic stricken members of the right-wing 92 Group let it be known that between 60 and 100 of them were considering "go it alone" manifestos pledging undying opposition to a Single European Currency and demanding a referendum on Britain's future relationship with Europe.
Enter Sir James, and the carefully cobbled cabinet compromise was undone. As one cabinet minister ruefully observed. We spend months dancing on the head of a pin considering whether to have a referendum on an issue that might never arise, and suddenly we discover half the parliamentary party wants to quit Europe altogether."
Attempting to hold the line, Mr Major said those contemplating life outside the EU were living "in cloud cuckoo land". But as one writer put it, "the Prime Minister, caught in the middle, was easily characterised "as a political tramp of no fixed political abode".
THAT perception certainly goes to the heart of much Tory disillusion with this government. As for the wider public? There is some evidence to support Mr Douglas Hurd's view that Mr Major is more popular than his party. Despite all, he has an election winning record. And again, crucially, he is not somebody else.
Tory MPs had the chance to be rid of him last year, and balked at the alternatives. If John Major cannot hold the Tories together at this point, the succession of a pro European Heseltine or an anti European Portillo would trigger the "split" which Lord Blake, the Tory historian, thinks may well follow a general election defeat.
Mr Major's task, more uphill than on Wednesday, is to persuade his party that ddefeat is not inevitable. He is not helped by ministers who privately voice their doubts, and fuel the virulent attacks of the Tory press. MPs, more than ever fearful for their slender majorities, will press for a radical shift in policy primarily in relation to tax and to Europe.
And in his summation yesterday, Mr Major outlined the basis for a possible Tory assault on Labour. Mr Tony Blair's plans for devolution and constitutional reform, his yet to be defined tax and spending plans, and, crucially, his Euro enthusiasm, could provide fertile ground. But Tory right wingers fear they' will be unable to exploit it.
The Chancellor, Mr Kenneth Clarke, appears determinedly sceptical about big tax cuts (even if the underestimate of the PSBR and the untold costs of the beef crisis leave him sufficient scope). And he and Mr Heseltine will surely impose limits on Mr Major's own brand of Euroscepticism. The Tory left says he must not yield the "centre ground" to Mr Blair. The Tory right seeks more "clear blue water" between the two.
As one dismayed activist put it yesterday, Mr Major' seems forever constrained by the requirements of party management. It was precisely that sentiment which fired Mr Redwood's leadership challenge with the assertion "no change, no chance".
Mr Major has but 12 months to prove him wrong. Ministers appear confident the Ulster Unionists will help them survive to next May, if only because Mr David Trimble has no incentive to precipitate an early contest which might produce a large Labour majority. But unless Mr Bruton and Mr Spring can work some magic by June 10th, the peace process will effectively go on hold as authority and time desert Mr Major.
It is always, of course, a mistake to write off the Tories. But Mr Heseltine is wrong to argue that they found themselves in similar straits before going on to win in 1987 and 1992. In May 1991 the two parties were level pegging. On Thursday the Conservatives trailed by 17 points. To defy the pundits in 1992, Mr Major gained eight points over the 12 months to polling day. To perform the same trick next time, he needs to do almost twice as well. If he does, it will truly be a historic first.