The dramatic news that President George Bush and Mr Tony Blair are to meet in Belfast on Monday and Tuesday is a welcome confirmation that the British Prime Minister continues to influence United States policy on Iraq as the war reaches a critical juncture.
This meeting will give him an opportunity to press home his argument about the importance of giving the United Nations a central role in post-war Iraq and to accelerate the road map towards peace in the Middle East. It is a major boost for the Northern Ireland peace process in a crucial week when key decisions fall to be made on the fifth anniversary of the Belfast Agreement. Mr Bush will have an unequalled opportunity to hear about the North's peace process and its relevance for the Middle East.
The meeting will assess the state of the war in Iraq and how it should be fought to a conclusion by the US-British coalition forces. Despite the rapid advance to Baghdad, the future course of the war remains highly uncertain. The chilling announcement yesterday that the Iraqis are to use unconventional weapons against the invasion force was later clarified to exclude the use of weapons of mass destruction. If that means techniques of guerrilla warfare are to be used by the Iraqis in the battle for Baghdad the two leaders will have to assess how to respond and what the likely consequences are for the duration of the war. They may have to decide whether to beseige the city or fight their way into it. They will do so in full awareness that a lengthy and bloody fight for the capital could profoundly affect international opinion about its acceptability. A rapid victory is politically desirable an all counts for both men. And, Belfast's own history is salutary in these respects.
Mr Blair has strong cards to play in pressing home his arguments about the United Nations and the Middle East peace process. He has insisted the UN should be directly involved in endorsing the interim administration of post-war Iraq, in reconstruction and humanitarian aid and in creating a trust fund for its oil wealth. Within the Bush administration there is a vigorous debate about whether the UN should be involved at all. Mr Bush needs to be made aware of the huge political importance of this issue in Europe, as Mr Colin Powell was in Brussels this week. Without UN endorsement it will not be possible to repair the damage to transatlantic relations and to legitimise the outcome of the war.
The same point applies to the Middle East peace process. Mr Blair has seen some progress in his efforts to have the agreed road map published now that Mr Mahmoud Abbas has been appointed Palestinian prime minister. In its announcements of the summit meeting, both Mr Blair's and Mr Bush's offices stressed the possible lessons peace in Northern Ireland can hold for the Israel-Palestinian conflict. That linkage is a remarkable tribute to the progress made. The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, has an opportunity to add his voice to Mr Blair's on Northern Ireland, but also on the UN and the Middle East.