INSDIE POLITICS:Tensions between the Greens and FF over minor matters signal danger as storm clouds gather for the autumn, writes STEPHEN COLLINS
THE MANNER in which tensions between the Coalition partners bubbled to the surface in recent days made it an exciting week in the Dáil – but the deeper question is whether the row over animal welfare legislation is a sign of more serious differences to come.
The sense of irritation and annoyance at the Greens on the Fianna Fáil benches was palpable, even among TDs who were not particularly exercised by the stag hunting ban and the new dog breeding regulations.
Former minister Mary O’Rourke summed up the mood in her party by saying she wanted a guarantee from Green Party leader John Gormley that the legislation would mark “the end of his ramblings in rural Ireland”. More importantly, she referred to her own experience in coalition government and the need for give and take between the parties involved.
Rightly or wrongly, Fianna Fáil TDs feel they have given more than enough to the Greens, and are in no mood for further concessions. Fortunately for the Coalition the Dáil will rise for the summer recess next Thursday, but already the storm clouds are gathering on the horizon for the autumn.
One of them is the public commitment Gormley has given to hold the Dublin mayoral election before the end of the year. Just for good measure, he wants the three outstanding byelections and the referendum on children’s rights held on the same day.
There is no stomach in Fianna Fáil for an autumn mayoral election which would only expose the collapse in the party’s support base in Dublin. Holding the byelections could have even more devastating consequences, as they could bring three new Opposition TDs to a Dáil in which the Government is struggling to maintain its majority.
There is a strong chance that holding the electoral contests could trigger a general election, but there is also a chance that if Fianna Fáil digs its heels in and refuses to hold them, the Coalition could come unstuck and there would be an election anyway.
Conventional wisdom in Leinster House continues to insist that as both Fianna Fáil and the Greens have so much to lose in an election, they will hang together for at least another year. At this stage, though, events are dictating the political pace. Logic may have nothing to do with the timing of the break-up.
The project of framing another austerity budget has the potential to be a more serious source of potential conflict between the two parties than the Dublin mayoral election. The Government is committed to a €3 billion savings package, with a third of it coming from cuts in capital spending and the rest from a mixture of current spending cuts and extra taxes.
Already there are signs of tensions between the Department of Finance and the Greens on how the savings can be achieved. Further cuts in public service pay are not on the agenda following the Croke Park deal, so further spending cuts affecting genuinely worthwhile programmes can be expected. That will inevitably cause political uproar that the Greens will find hard to live with.
One way of minimising the pain is to find a couple of big ticket items that can raise a significant amount of new tax revenue, and so minimise the scale of the spending cuts. Brian Lenihan has repeatedly resisted pressure to repeat the mistakes of the 1980s by taking the soft option and ratcheting up the income tax take on an already burdened workforce.
The alternative, which makes both economic and political sense, is to widen the tax base to give the exchequer a more sustainable revenue stream for the future. The obvious way to go is a property tax linked to water charges that will both raise revenue and limit consumption of a scarce resource.
The problem is that it will take time to devise a graduated property tax that takes account of true valuations. As an interim measure it might be possible to raise a considerable amount of revenue through a flat-rate tax on property. The success of the €200 flat tax on second homes which looks like bringing in over €60 million this year points to the effectiveness of a relatively low tax spread across the greatest possible number of properties.
However, Gormley has set his face firmly against a flat-rate tax for either property or water. A comprehensive countrywide site valuation tax is the Greens’ favoured method of introducing a property tax, but it will take years to get the system in place. If some kind of property tax is going to come in the next budget, the most the Greens would appear willing to accept as an interim measure is a self-assessment system based on property values.
Previous experience is not encouraging. The residential property tax devised by Garret FitzGerald as a replacement for rates generated strong political opposition and brought in very little revenue. The widely flouted tax was eventually abolished by the rainbow government of the 1990s.
Whether devising a workable property tax or coming up with deep cuts in public services, huge decisions that will stretch it to the limit will have to be taken by the Coalition in the autumn. The stresses and strains of the past week on relatively minor issues, by comparison, will not make that task any easier.
Both parties in Government can point to the way they managed to get over one high hurdle after another last autumn, including the Lisbon Treaty referendum, the Nama Bill and the budget cuts. Now, by contrast, an air of exasperation and exhaustion is coming off both Coalition partners. Unless they come back after the summer break with a new sense of purpose, the end may not be far off.