The space between the rock and the hard place is narrow, confined and pitiless, as the Minister for Agriculture, Mr Yates, has discovered over his decision to regionalise beef exports to Russia because of the incidence of BSE in Cork, Tipperary and Monaghan. The decision brings home to the Irish public how BSE can affect farmers' livelihoods, on top of the price collapse it has already caused. Despite the extremely low proportionate incidence of BSE in Irish herds, there is no immunity from the crisis for Irish farmers as they compete on world markets.
Mr Yates had to decide whether it was better to sacrifice the interests of these three counties - possibly only in the short term - as against the collapse of the whole Russian market for subsidised beef exports from Ireland. Running at some £300 million per annum, this is the most active third market for Irish beef. Were it to collapse altogether, the knock on effect in terms of price and employment for the beefy and processing industry could be very severe indeed. Intense competition from France, Australia and New Zealand, all of them keen to penetrate the Russian market, was a further constraint on the Minister's room for manoeuvre.
He maintains that he had no option but to decided as he did. It is difficult to disagree with him, despite reservations about the pattern of announcements of the increased incidence of BSE here over the summer months, about which the Russians were registering their disquiet since July. Political instability in Russia may well have reinforced the determination of its representatives to ensure environmental standards, given that they are in a buyers' market. Was there a certain complacency about this on the Irish side, based on an assumption that considerations of price loomed larger in the Russians' minds?
Whatever the answer to this question, the best that Mr Yates can hope from this predicament is that the forthcoming pattern of BSE announcements will allow this arbitrary decision to be reviewed as soon as possible. It unfairly categorises tens of thousands of farmers and millions of cattle as suspect and can do untold further damage to the beef industry. Given its great importance for the Irish economy and the very high proportion of exports, it is essential that the damage be contained by the very tightest controls. Today, for example, much more stringent regulations of bonemeal feed stuffs are to be introduced. Has there been sufficient enforcement of existing controls? And how effective have the expensive border controls been in preventing unscrupulous trafficking in diseased animals?
It is ironic that just as there was an eloquent cross party plea in the House of Commons yesterday for a regionalisation of British policy to save the beef industry in Northern Ireland, Mr Yates should have encountered such an uproar for a similar decision in the Republic. His political colleagues in Fine Gael were extraordinarily quick yesterday to mount a lobby of the Russian embassy, in acknowledgment of the electoral damage this decision could do to them. They will have their work cut out to convince their sup porters in Cork, Tipperary and Monaghan that this was the better course in the circumstances.