ANALYSIS:John Bruton's hopes of winning the top job in Europe will have been boosted by the backing of Brian Cowen but he is still a long-odds candidate, writes JAMIE SMYTH
WITH THE media obsessing on whether former British prime minister Tony Blair will become the first president of the European Council, few people in Brussels even registered John Bruton’s application for the job yesterday.
“John who” was the reaction of one commission official when asked about Bruton’s letter to all 27 EU ambassadors in Washington advocating his candidacy for the post, which is created by the Lisbon Treaty. Several other EU sources said they remembered his valuable contribution to the Convention on the Future of Europe, which helped draft the EU constitution, but acknowledged that a lot of time had passed since he was prime minister.
During the past five years in Washington as the EU’s ambassador to the US, the former taoiseach has slipped off the international media’s radar and simply doesn’t attract as much attention as Blair or any serving head of state. But having a low profile doesn’t automatically rule the former Fine Gael leader out of the running for a post, which still hasn’t got a clear job description and which prompted feverish speculation at yesterday’s summit.
Several EU member states have already made clear their opposition to a high profile figure such as Blair filling the new post. Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg have circulated a paper seeking to restrict the mandate for the new job, which they believe could overshadow the existing post of European Commission president. Sweden, the holder of the rotating EU presidency, has also suggested the new job should go to a chairman figure that can work behind the scenes to organise the work of the European Council and promote consensus between EU member states.
Bruton’s successful tenure as EU ambassador to Washington proves he has these qualities and, as his letter to EU ambassadors noted, this experience would be helpful to him in “performing the external relations portion of the president’s role”. He also has direct experience of the European Council and presided over Ireland’s presidency of the EU as taoiseach in 1996. This experience is considered a prerequisite for the post as EU leaders tend to appoint someone from their own club to top EU jobs.
However, the length of time that has elapsed since Bruton attended European Council meetings inevitably means that he has few friends still around the table. Only Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker, who has also declared his candidacy for the new job, is still a leader with a casting vote.
“There is probably nowhere that people are more rapidly forgotten than sitting around the European Council table,” said one senior politician, who has attended numerous European summits in Brussels in recent years. This lengthy absence from the top table probably hands an advantage to candidates such as Juncker or Jan Peter Balkenende, who will be sitting around the table when the new post is appointed in the weeks to come.
Bruton could also face opposition from states that would prefer a more high-profile first European Council president. British foreign secretary David Miliband says the EU has to appoint someone with a global stature or risk becoming irrelevant in a world dominated by China and the US. France also favours a president who can project the EU on the global stage, although President Nicolas Sarkozy has for months blown hot and cold on Blair.
To be successful, Bruton clearly requires the strong support of Taoiseach Brian Cowen, who had already given his backing to Blair. At yesterday’s summit Cowen offered somewhat tepid support for Bruton, prompting Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny to tell him “it was time to get off the British horse”. Cowen was clearly put in a tricky position by Bruton’s surprise application. The later firm endorsement from Cowen will help but unless it is followed by a vigorous campaign, Bruton’s bid is doomed.
Two factors working in Bruton’s favour are an apparent lack of good quality candidates for the post and his own ability to position himself as a compromise candidate from a small member state with good EU credentials.
Question marks hang over the candidacy of both frontrunners for the post, Blair and Juncker. Blair’s support for the war in Iraq in 2003, his high profile and the staunch opposition of the British conservatives to his candidacy are likely to knock him out of the race. Juncker has already been vetoed by the British for one top EU post in 2004 when he was touted as commission president and in recent months he has clashed publicly with French President Sarkozy. This does not bode well for his chances.
Bruton’s Fine Gael credentials also place him within the powerful European People’s Party (EPP), which is well placed to have one of its own members appointed to the post of council president. The second post created by the Lisbon Treaty, the high representative of the Union for foreign affairs and security policy, is sought after by the Party of European Socialists.
But to claim the prize of the council president Bruton will first have to win the support of his political group in Europe, the EPP – and this seems a long shot at present. Dutch prime minister Jan Peter Balkenende is reportedly waiting in the wings as a compromise candidate if Blair and Juncker fall out of the race. And the tradition of the EU council suggests a current member of the club is more likely to prevail than a past one.
Jamie Smyth is European Correspondent