The danger for Mr Major in launching his "beefwar" against the European Union is that what is intended to look like resolute and determined action may simply wind up by looking ridiculous. Already the more perceptive press in France and Germany is starting to reprint extracts from the tabloid newspapers in Britain, with their mindless and xenophobia, which will do nothing to strengthen sympathy for Mr Major's campaign or lend it the seriousness it needs to achieve any of its stated objectives.
Britain has a problem with its beef which its partners in the EU accurately define as largely self inflicted. But the sober and balanced comments at the weekend by the President of the European Commission, Mr Santer, show that there is support for a reasoned approach which does not involve confrontation. The bludgeon being used by Mr Major's government, if successful in forcing decisions on a timetable for lifting the ban on British beef exports without adequate respect for scientific evidence, would further damage the beef industry in other EU states without restoring Britain's market credibility. Statistically, the risk involved in eating British beef is perceived as being much greater than in the case of any other member.
The current polarisation is not conducive to a step by step policy which will clearly distinguish between safe and unsafe beef from Britain, gradually bringing the market back to normal. That is reason enough for hoping that the British government will have the good sense to drop its "war" strategy and return to diplomacy. The curious argument used last week by a Conservative minister - that the EU was not showing solidarity, in spite of the fact that only Britain has been out of step - illustrated a dangerously closed state of mind.
Whether Mr Major can change the course of a tide which appears to be overwhelming all in its path is another matter, however. Beef has subsumed all the violent irrationality of the Tory Euro sceptics, from defence of avoirdupois and the pint glass to a feigned concern that the Germans are working out their resentment at defeat in 1945. In John Major's "declaration of war" there is neither the majesty of De Gaulle's famous battle for the paysans of France in the 1960s nor the panache of Margaret Thatcher's assault, from the high ground of a large parliamentary majority, on the size of Britain's budgetary contribution in the 1980s. If there is electoral advantage for him in allowing the agenda to be dictated by internal Conservative politics, it will be at the expense of Britain's long term interests in Europe, and also, probably, of those of its EU partners.
His tactics certainly overshadow the prospects for the Irish presidency, and may inflict damage, for problematic short term gain, on the direction of the InterGovernmental Conference. That may please the Eurosceptics, but it will tie Mr Major's hands and lessen the influence of his government. Mr George Walden, the Conservative backbench MP, who has threatened to resign the party whip, thereby destroying the Tory majority in the House of Commons, has described the strategy as one of weakness and petty nationalism. His voice undoubtedly represents the opinion of others on the Conservative backbenches. The question is whether Mr Major is any longer able to hold his party together now that a single issue has been found that so starkly highlights its divisions.