It is a mark of how skewed Britain's European debate has become that yesterday's launch of the Britain in Europe organisation concentrated on the dangers of withdrawal from the EU rather than on the strong case for joining the euro. The prime minister, Mr Blair, was joined on the platform by ministerial colleagues, leading Europhile members of the Conservative Party as well as the leader of the Liberal Democrats and prominent business and trade union figures. Although widely recognised to be the opening shot in a long campaign culminating in a referendum on joining the single currency, it was striking how little the subject was explicitly raised.
This is a clear indication of how under-stated the pro-integration case for joining the euro has been over recent years, as a result of which public opinion in Britain is still solidly against it. The debate has been knocked sideways by a chorus of Eurosceptic coverage from major newspapers and other media and the overhang from the long period of Conservative rule. Alongside that there has been the extraordinary shift towards even more hostility to the EU by the Conservatives in opposition under Mr Hague.
This was reinforced at last week's party conference in Blackpool, which adopted a new position that systematic opt-outs should be negotiated from further integration in order to protect Britain's independence. It is an unrealistic policy, which has now been described by former Tory grandees such as Mr Ken Clarke and Mr Michael Heseltine as tantamount to withdrawal from the EU. Mr John Major has also joined these critics of his successor, Mr Hague.
Against this background Mr Blair and his advisers have pressed the Britain in Europe organisation to concentrate initially on the case for putting their country at the heart of the EU's and the continent's affairs rather than joining the euro. Certainly that follows the lines of policies he has pursued in office, and successfully so. He has carried public opinion with him in arguing that Britain's interests would otherwise be badly affected. Yesterday he described this as a patriotic approach, to counter the nationalist message emanating from the Conservatives. Failure to press home the case for joining the euro at this stage is characteristic of Mr Blair's caution on the issue. The five economic tests announced two years ago by the chancellor, Mr Brown, were reiterated, particularly the need to await convergence of the British and euro-zone economies before it would be feasible to consider joining. Understandably, winning the next election is foremost in Mr Blair's tactical and strategic planning. But it is more and more apparent that it will be fought on the euro as a major issue. In that perspective the effort to shift the focus from joining the euro to participating in the heart of the EU is understandable but shortsighted.
Mr Blair cannot avoid the issue at the next election, especially if he is credibly to hold a referendum on the euro soon after it. The sooner he starts to argue the case more explicitly the better, assuming that is his intention. It may be difficult to shift opinion, but it will be impossible unless the effort is made. Otherwise he will be conceding further ground to the Conservative opponents he so deprecates. They say he secretly intends to join the currency; it will not be possible for Britain genuinely to participate in the heart of the EU unless it does so.