THE OLD political judgment is apt: if Brian Cowen kept ducks, they would drown. Since becoming Taoiseach two years ago, the former minister for finance has experienced the most turbulent economic times ever visited upon an Irish leader. His responsibility for at least part of the financial mess shattered his public confidence at the outset. Now, even if he succeeds in leading an economic recovery, the electorate is unlikely to be kind.
Luck in politics is hugely important. Bertie Ahern may have been responsible for an uncompetitive, over-paid and golden-circled economy that was heading for an almighty crash because of his populist and feeble leadership. But he got out just in time, even if he had to be pushed by the Mahon tribunal. The tone for Mr Cowen’s Government was set by an early defeat on the Lisbon Treaty. After that, he was always scrambling to catch up. The speed and extent of the implosion in the banking and construction sectors, along with a collapse in exchequer revenues, brought extended political confusion and denial before translating into remedial action.
Last year, the Government faced three major challenges: to secure public support for the Lisbon Treaty; to establish Nama and to cut public spending by €3 billion in the December budget. It succeeded in all three. But, as the extent of the banking problems became evident this year and the public became aware it must pay for the rescue packages, support for Fianna Fáil and satisfaction with Mr Cowen’s leadership continued to fall.
For a time, the Taoiseach’s public demeanour suggested a man who knew that necessary corrective action was a recipe for rejection by the electorate and, eventually, by his party colleagues. He may still believe that but is now determined to battle on. Accepting that the Government wasn’t blameless for the banking and construction crisis, he insisted this week that “grave mistakes” and “stunning failures” took place elsewhere and sought to put a positive complexion on his own role.
Opposition parties have accused the Taoiseach of evading his responsibilities and pre-empting the findings of the banking inquiry. But a more astute agenda is involved. As the economy improves, the public is being conditioned to expect further pain, rather than relief. Borrowing €400 million a week is unsustainable, Mr Cowen insisted yesterday, and public spending will have to be reduced by €3 billion in the December budget. A new property tax and reductions in welfare payments are likely.
The Government is in an extremely vulnerable position. It dare not hold three pending byelections. It is struggling to retain the support of Independent TDs. Despite that, discipline within the Coalition has been exceptional, and a creative relationship has been established with the Green Party. The hope within Fianna Fáil is that a recovering economy will eventually lift party support. Before that can happen, however, the Croke Park deal with public sector unions and a critical December Budget will have to be approved. It is a formidable and potentially explosive agenda.