Public support for Fianna Fáil and the Coalition Government continues to rise, following a Cabinet reshuffle and intensive efforts to recast its image as a more caring and responsive Government in the December Budget.
The latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll, conducted earlier this week, will provide reassurance for the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, as he lays long-term plans for a general election. But it will make dismal reading for the main opposition parties which failed to convince the electorate that they offered a viable alternative.
Support for Fianna Fáil has reached its highest point since the local elections of last June but, at 38 per cent, it is still well short of the 42 per cent it achieved in the general election of May 2002. Support for the Progressive Democrats remained static at 4 per cent during that period. The figure that will give greatest satisfaction to both parties, however, is the new approval rating for the Coalition Government which rose by a further nine points to 52 per cent and is now well within the political comfort zone.
A buoyant economy, sound Government finances and predictions for further growth have generated a feel-good factor among the electorate. Satisfaction levels were particularly positive among older voters who shrugged off the treatment of pensioners in nursing homes along with other ministerial-generated controversies. Consideration of such matters may, however, become more significant as an election approaches.
Fine Gael will be disappointed that the progress it made in the aftermath of the local elections was not maintained. And while the fall-off in support was not statistically significant, the party leader, Mr Enda Kenny, would obviously be anxious that the trend in his own - and the party's - support base should be upwards. A similar malaise affected the Labour Party where satisfaction and support levels for the party and its leader, Mr Pat Rabbitte, remained unchanged. The Green Party and its leader, Mr Trevor Sargent, also failed to make progress. Disagreement within the parties about the strategic and political benefits to be gained from the establishment of a pre-election pact has not helped. And while these findings provide no definitive answers, they do emphasise the need for clarity and cohesion on the opposition benches and a more robust approach to the Government in the Dáil.
There was a marginal decline in public support for Sinn Féin, while the satisfaction rating for the party president, Mr Gerry Adams, dropped sharply in the aftermath of the breakdown of negotiations on the formation of a power-sharing executive and the Northern Bank robbery.
The percentage of undecided voters was unusually low for a mid-term opinion poll, which would suggest the Government parties are well placed to make further progress in the months ahead. By the same token, those opposition parties with ambitions to form an alternative government have an even larger mountain to climb.