The United Kingdom's election campaign, in its final stages, looks set to produce a decisive result, probably a Labour victory, despite some narrowing in the opinion polls. On existing trends it is difficult to see the Conservatives closing the gap at the last minute, but that cannot, of course, be ruled out. From the Irish point of view a decisive result, producing a British government with a working majority and a clear cut mandate, is vitally important for the future of Northern Ireland. The same applies on Europe, where the other EU member states will hope for a government capable of dealing rapidly and decisively with a large and pressing agenda.
The latter half of this long campaign has seen the gloves come off in unceremonious fashion, with some ferocious exchanges on pensions and European affairs and a regrettable resort to personalised abuse and negative tactics. Mr Tony Blair has had considerable success in his efforts to inject passion, commitment and conviction to the campaigning. In a series of speeches he spelled out a vision for New Labour, targeting its priorities on education, health, pensions, constitutional reform and European affairs. He has also performed well on television, managing to soften his personality profile in an effort to convince floating voters, women especially, to support him. But for all that, one is left with the impression of a radicalism of style, presentation and youthfulness rather than of an alternative programme markedly different from the Conservatives. This is reflected in a weariness over the length of the campaign and a continuing deep rooted feeling that the politicians are all the same and out of touch with ordinary people.
Mr John Major has played to his strengths as a campaigner, which is reflected in the opinion polls. He has insisted on giving priority to the European issue and has explicitly linked it with the future integrity of the United Kingdom itself, which he says is endangered by Labour's plans for Scottish and Welsh devolution. But his inability to command whole hearted support in his party on the single currency has made him vulnerable to Labour's case that he is a weak leader of a divided party. In the process, the British electorate has been given a very sceptical account of European affairs, as Labour tracked the Conservatives, pushing back the possibility of joining EMU within the lifetime of the coming parliament. Strong statements in favour of Britain playing a full role in Europe have not been made or heard. This will complicate the capacity of whatever government is elected to deal with an urgent agenda.
The campaign in Northern Ireland has, as ever, been very much concerned with its own affairs and the future of the peace process rather than with social, economic or foreign policy. The election is nonetheless critical for all concerned. It has been disfigured by the continuing violence and threats of violence and disruption to transport and recreational facilities in Britain by the IRA. This has served to reinforce the determination of both main parties to ensure that any subsequent IRA ceasefire "must be proven to be genuine in both word and deed", as Mr Blair puts it in an article in this newspaper today. His commitment to pursue the talks process vigorously and with a great a priority as the Conservatives if he is elected is welcome. It underlines the opportunity that opens up to make progress after the elections in the UK and this State are completed and new governments installed.