After his extraordinary general election victory in May 1997 the British prime minister, Mr Tony Blair, and his government enjoyed a long political honeymoon. But things look rather different now, after their first 1,000 days in power. Problems have accumulated in recent months, including dissatisfaction with the health and education services, rows over who is to be the official Labour candidate in the election for mayor of London, and disagreements over the government's European policies. This recalls the mid-term blues that have afflicted previous governments, despite the continuing lead Labour commands in the opinion polls.
It remains to be seen whether these problems define the run-in to the next general election, expected in the summer of next year. If they do the Conservatives stand a better chance of recovering in popular esteem, although at this stage there is little or no expectation that they could defeat Labour. So much of Mr Blair's political momentum has come from the welcome extended to him in 1997 by swing voters - determined to remove the Conservatives from power - that the prospect of a Tory return has not yet been taken seriously by the British media or electorate. Mr Blair has set such store on winning a second term (an achievement which eluded any Labour government in the twentieth century) that for him to fail would be an extraordinary setback.
Assessing Labour's first 1,000 days in office involves making judgments on its political, constitutional, economic, social, European and foreign policies. A bracing spirit of innovation and modernisation swept through the new government in its first year, despite continuities of policy in many domains from its Conservative predecessor. This was most manifest in the constitutional sphere, with radical measures culminating in the Belfast Agreement, devolution for Scotland and Wales, a new elected lord mayor in London, independence to the Bank of England, House of Lords reform and undertakings to change the first-past-the-post electoral system. Many detect a greater reluctance now to pursue this agenda; it is universally agreed that Mr Blair's preference for centralised methods of political control puts limits on his willingness to devolve it.
Despite the historic nature of these changes it is Labour's successful conduct of economic policy that ensures its credibility and ought now to enable it spend more on welfare services to dispel recent criticisms and disenchantment among its core supporters. In order to establish that credibility a strict limit was put on public expenditure. That can now be relaxed to allow Britain catch up with the EU average in health spending by 2006. Mr Blair sets great store on securing reforms in EU social and economic policies to match the changes he has introduced in Britain, including making labour markets more flexible to create employment. That would, he calculates, make the EU more attractive to British voters and help convince them they should join the euro. It is an uphill task, given the current cast of public opinion. Misjudging it would do more than anything else to revive the Conservatives' fortunes.