Drapier: Bertie Ahern made an uncharacteristic error on the timing of the by-elections. By arguing for postponement he exposed an unguarded flank. Even Homer nods! The Opposition were quick to pounce.
Enda Kenny tabled the writ for the Meath by-election. Pat Rabbitte threatened to do the same for Kildare. Rarely is the mood of the voters improved when a politician seems to run away from their verdict. The Government moved to mend their hand, but not before damage was done.
On paper the Government parties enter each of these by-elections with a lead of 10 points over the combined vote of Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens. However, the confidence of Bernard Durkan, Damien English and Emmet Stagg as they reeled off a litany of problems and failings in their constituencies suggest the Opposition is up for the fight. The dynamic in Kildare North will be different, where a Government defeat would leave it with no representation at all.
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Another landmine for the Government exploded in the Supreme Court. Not surprisingly, the court rejected the attempt to legalise the retention of monies unlawfully taken from medical card holders in public nursing homes. This was a landmine of the Government's own making, when it railroaded a flawed proposal through an incredulous Dáil. The Supreme Court has vindicated the painstaking work by John Perry on this issue. Ministers ignored the warnings dating back years and must now explain why.
The ruling lifts the lid on the Government's whole approach to nursing home care, public and private, whose legality the Ombudsman has questioned consistently.
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Martin Cullen broke free of his pursuers as the Standards in Public Office Commission closed the case. The charge that he left himself open to "the perception of impropriety" lingers. No rule was broken but as Trevor Sargent and Ciarán Cuffe pointed out, the rules should be explicit and overseen by the Standards in Public Office Commission.
Martin Cullen's efforts to restore his authority were not helped by the "overrunning enthusiasm" of his Minister of State, Ivor Callely, who pre-empted the announcement of a €16 billion transport plan for Dublin. The Minister was not slow to bare his teeth and show the young pretender who is the alpha male.
However, the battle over this particular bone will not prove his authority. The public's appetite for Transport Master Plans has worn thin. The real test for Martin Cullen is how he will deal with the pressing issues of Aer Lingus, the new terminal for Dublin Airport and bus competition in Dublin, which have all lain in cold storage since he took over.
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Seamus Brennan has not lost his instinct for a good press opportunity. Following the row provoked by Kevin Myers, Seamus announced his ambition to replace the One-Parent Family Allowance by a family-friendly alternative. It would not discourage the presence of father. It would confront the issue of childcare. It would remove the obstacles to participating in work and education.
Sounds good, but the Savage 16 have taken policy in the opposite direction. Empathy will not be enough. The Minister must come up with clear proposals. His solutions must also fairly support two-parent families on ordinary income who have good reason to feel that the burdens they bear get even less attention.
This is one Minister who must surely know that time is not on his side. His tenure in Transport and in Education were both cut short. He will need a clear compass to steer his way through the tangled briars of means tests, eligibility conditions and housing supplements which interact to obscure objectives and limit choices.
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It is good to see the SDLP have a new confidence in their step. Nationalist voters have a real decision to make as to what mandate they want to give. Reacting to the report of the Independent Monitoring Commission, the Government said "the Irish public should now exercise the sanction of their own judgment".
Mark Durkan argues that all progress should not be blocked by the obstacles of decommissioning and criminality. He sketches a future where the Forum for Peace and Reconciliation would meet, the Assembly would reconvene, the key Executive positions would be filled by civic appointment if an Executive could not be agreed.
Bertie Ahern has reacted cautiously. However, he must sense the growing unease that the peace process is being played on Sinn Féin's terms. Its role is elevated above all other parties because it holds the last bargaining chip. Elections are the time when people give their judgment. They need to see real choices. Choices will materialise only if the two governments give oxygen to them.
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In a week when the prospect of by-elections saw Fine Gael and Labour draw closer together for tactical reasons, Jack O'Connor of SIPTU also entered the debate about the prospect of a Rainbow alternative. It came as no surprise to hear that members of his union will not easily leave the warm embrace of Bertie Ahern, as Seamus Brennan will readily attest. In supporting the move for a pre-election pact with Fine Gael, he made it clear that this will not be a love match. It is a question of business. Labour needs the vote transfers that a pre-election pact gives. History suggests that the best political matches are ones that have a sound business basis and draw their support from a range of political traditions. It can be a strength that Fine Gael is not closely aligned with a trade union agenda. It has its own strong reforming tradition in pursuit of a "Just Society".
Kicking out Fianna Fáil will not be a sufficient reason for voters. It will take more than maximising the Government's short-term difficulties in by-elections or elsewhere to create the space for the emergence of a credible alternative. Bertie's espousal of socialism has shown how adept he is at political cross-dressing. There must be a real substance in the alternative offered.