LIKE MARK TWAIN’S insistance that reports of his death were exaggerated, so too speculative, perennial, headlines suggesting the imminent demise of Belgium are also premature. Admittedly, the existential angst of the 11-million-strong divided country is currently manifest in a particularly acute stalemate.
“Deadlocked more than ever,” Le Soir thundered on Monday, reflecting on the latest twist in the cabinet-formation saga which means that the country is still led by a caretaker government, four months after a general election. (Politicians please note, disconcerting as it may be, the country appears to be functioning effectively without an elected government.)
At stake now, as ever, is the Flemish demand for greater autonomy for their region and specifically the rejection at the weekend by Walloon leaders of a 50-page constitutional text from nationalist Bart De Wever of the New Flemish Alliance party, the effective winner of the election in his community. De Wever wants further devolved to regional assemblies powers over labour market policy, the legal system, and – crucially – half of tax receipts. The latter is seen as code for ending fiscal transfers amounting to €1 billion a month to Francophone Wallonia from the more dynamic and populous Flemish economy.
De Wever, insisting he will not dilute his separatist-leaning agenda, has been sent back by King Albert for another round of talks with Francophone Socialist Party leader Elio di Rupo and allies. He argues, with some justice, that the alternative of calling a new election is pointless as it would be unlikely to break the stalemate.
The country’s enforced power sharing system – on which Northern Ireland’s was modelled – requires agreed participation by both communities in government, and has voting arrangements which make elections a sectarian headcount. The result is a tendency to drive voters into the arms of the more extreme representatives of each community, with no dividend for those who try to cross the sectarian divide. It is a creaking political compromise that may have maintained the country’s integrity so far but appears to be reaching the limit of its capacity.
Walloon concerns for the maintenance of transfer payments and for the status of Brussels, as much as any real fears for the break-up of the country, make significant concessions on greater devolution unlikely. For the forseeable future it is likely Belgium will continue, for good or ill, to struggle on under its caretaker administration.