Beleaguered Clinton always sure of warm welcome in this country

There may be a touch of the Skibbereen Eagle about it, and obviously it is of little consolation to him, but were Bill Clinton…

There may be a touch of the Skibbereen Eagle about it, and obviously it is of little consolation to him, but were Bill Clinton's fate left to an Irish audience he would have little to worry about. Such is the lingering result of his visit here, which was not only another impressive achievement, but probably the last bit of peace and approval the poor man is likely to get for a long time. Even if at times during that week he had a haunted look about him, the demeanour of a stag at bay waiting for the inevitable slaughter.

The simple facts are that Bill Clinton has been important for this country, and the Irish people like him. On Thursday, as the Washington storm clouds were engulfing him, David Trimble and Gerry Adams were having their first face-to-face meeting. It went off in an almost business-like way with all the appearance of two normal politicians going about their ordinary business. It was, of course, more than that, and for most of us there was an element of the miraculous about it, a hopeful harbinger of future peace and normality.

It is no exaggeration to say that a great deal of that is due to Bill Clinton. All of which is well documented, and Drapier is not going to repeat it, but simply to say it is a fact; and it is something for which everybody on this island should be profoundly grateful. Drapier knows that Bill Clinton will always be sure of a warm welcome in this country.

It was all indicative, too, of how cruel a business politics can be and of the mercilessness of the US media caught up in one of its periodic frenzies of moral indignation.

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No fair person can doubt Bill Clinton brought much of his troubles on his own head; no one can argue that he didn't know the rules when he broke them, and even if he thought sex alone would not destroy him, he must have realised that a combination of sex and lies was a devastating cocktail.

Nevertheless Drapier feels sad this morning. Clinton has great leadership qualities and great charisma, and if by some miracle he escapes the fate now staring him in the face, Drapier for one will drink a quiet glass and wish him well. And as far as Drapier is concerned, he will always find a special welcome on these shores. Otherwise this week it was the story of the two Marys, with our present and former presidents making headlines, but for different reasons. Drapier wrote a few weeks ago about the impressive part played by Mary McAleese in the aftermath of Omagh and called for a bit more fair play for her from sections of the media. A number of people, mainly from the North, wrote to Drapier supporting that view, but in any event this past week has been Mary McAleese's best since becoming President. Her natural warmth and informality worked very well indeed in Australia, and the reports back are positive. Drapier believes she has turned the corner in her Presidency and will eventually become as popular as her predecessor.

Which brings Drapier to the other Mary. It has been a bad week for her. Drapier has no difficulty in accepting Conor O'Clery's version of what happened and that, in his experience, has been the reaction of people of all parties in here.

There have been rumours for some time that all was not going well for Mary Robinson in Geneva, but most of this was put down to bitching by UN professionals who had seen a top job snatched by an outsider or to inexperience on the High Commissioner's part. But the events of the past week have sent some bells ringing, and the kindest things being said were that Mary Robinson was inept in allowing an unnecessary own-goal deflect attention from the serious work she is undertaking. That, as Drapier said, was the kindest thing being said. But then, what her Irish audience thinks may not matter to her all that much any more. It's the bigger stage that counts now.

Behind the scenes Drapier detects a lot of quiet work going on in the parties as real politics looms closer. For Fianna Fail and Bertie Ahern in particular, it has been a magic summer where, apart from the weather, nothing could go wrong. For Bertie there was the crowning moment of canonisation at the hands of Bill Clinton, the culmination of the longest sustained period of trouble-free government any Taoiseach has enjoyed in recent times. It may not continue thus. Past experience tells us that the good times rarely do. Our old friend "events" has a habit of turning up when least expected. Bertie Ahern need only cast his mind back to the aftermath of the Belfast Agreement and remember how the euphoria was so quickly soured by the Vincent Browne revelations in Magill of the Rennicks payments. With the Flood tribunal about to resume and the inevitable leaks and hints of things to come, it is salutary to remember that the only capital political offence these days is to break the eleventh commandment - being caught, and especially being caught telling a lie.

What will happen to the Moriarty tribunal nobody knows. Drapier does know that the Supreme Court judgment has seriously demoralised the tribunal, and few people here now believe Judge Moriarty will be able to continue. Whether his staff stay on is another day's work, but one way or another we are in for lengthy and expensive delays as Mr Haughey's rearguard action continues.

Drapier has two observations. The delay will mean that any revelations which eventually emerge will be closer to the general election, that is, if this Government runs its full course, which most people think likely. The second observation is that our tribunal law is an expensive mess and given the experience of recent years a new set of structures is an urgent necessity.

In terms of the present, however, most people here agree a key factor in the next general election will be the quality of candidates. In this respect the local elections are highly important for all parties, but especially for Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, both of which did badly in 1990 and both of which urgently need to replenish their stock of young elected politicians.

Fine Gael especially needs to do well in Dublin, emulating the success of Garret FitzGerald in 1979 when the local council elections gave him people like Sean Barrett, George Birmingham, Richard Bruton, Mary Flaherty, Nora Owen, Gay Mitchell and others who went on to win Dail seats and become established politicians.

One of the inescapable rules of modern politics, especially with so little difference between the parties on policy, is the importance of good candidates, which is precisely why the stakes will be so high in the local elections. It is a theme Drapier will revisit shortly.