WITH 15 days to go before voting in the US presidential elections it is increasingly Senator Barack Obama's contest to lose.
Mr Obama not only leads in the polling and organisationally in the main battleground states, he has pulled ahead deservedly in the central arguments over policy, temperament and ability to lead.
These are the main issues determining how voters choose between the candidates. Mr Obama has skilfully paced his appeal by harnessing it closely to the growing impact of the credit crunch on living standards and economic insecurity for ordinary Americans. Voters with reservations about his character and racial background are having to decide whether these factors should have priority over their judgment on who is the better man to lead them through a deepening recession and to restore their country's international standing. By contrast, John McCain looks uncertain about how to handle that issue and confused on how to distance himself from the Bush administration's dismal economic record. Lately he has proved frighteningly unwilling to disown the extreme anti-Obama prejudices stoked up among the Republican base by his running mate Sarah Palin.
In the final fortnight of campaigning Mr Obama will want to consolidate this lead, avoid pitfalls and maintain the cool approach which has helped him gain these advantages. Mr McCain has failed to offer convincing alternative policies to tackle the country's problems in the three election television debates. He can only hope to reverse the trend against him by dramatic good fortune, desperate campaigning tropes or by accentuating Mrs Palin's wildest attacks on Mr Obama as an unpatriotic alien. This is dangerous territory for US democracy. The intolerant culture wars pitting coastal liberals against continental true believers already leave the country less and less able to respond to its major challenges. It must be hoped nothing happens before and after the voting to make those conflicts even more poisonous.
The length and intensity of this campaign, together with the overlapping impact of economic shocks and shifts in the international position of the United States, have given it a huge traction with the voting public. This shows up most dramatically in the organisational advantage accruing to the Democratic campaign. It is far ahead of the Republicans in voter registration, especially of younger people and ethnic minorities. It has much more financial resources to spend on the advertising campaigns which make such a difference in marginal states. And it has mobilised online networking in an unprecedented way. Barring accidents and assuming these factors trump the racial hesitation among white voters, Mr Obama would seem to have a commanding advantage.
Compared to that the Republicans lack the ruthless campaigning edge which gave Mr Bush victory in 2000 and 2004. The patriotic lift from 9/11 and the Iraq war no longer have the same attraction. Change is in the air.