Given the extent of Mr Tony Blair's general election victory in 1997, it is not surprising that the traditional mid-term blues should have been delayed. Results from the London mayoralty and local government elections yesterday confirm that they have now arrived with a vengeance. Mr Ken Livingstone's victory in London, achieved in the teeth of virulent opposition from the Labour leadership, contains many lessons about the party's manipulative style. The failure to get out the core Labour vote in the local elections must also worry Mr Blair. But there is no real sign that either result threatens Labour's chances of winning the next general election.
Mr Blair has signalled he is prepared to work with Mr Livingstone. How he does so, will be a considerable test of his leadership. He is not used to defeat. Nor has he altered his opinion of the new Mayor, whom he regards as a potential disaster for London. Mr Blair will have to respond politically to this defeat. There is much in it he could turn to his advantage if its lessons are properly learned.
The London vote is a decisive rejection of New Labour's widely perceived control freakery, which was applied so forcefully against Mr Livingstone. A more open style and a greater readiness to accept devolved power will be necessary to show the message has got home. Mr Livingstone's success may also change assumptions in the Labour Party that there is no alternative to Mr Blair's Third Way strategy between old-fashioned social democracy and the radical individualism associated With Mrs Thatcher.
Mr Blair could argue that Mr Livingstone exemplifies the former unacceptable tradition and the Conservative leader, Mr William Hague, the latter one. But to do that, he will probably have to intensify his political dialogue with the Liberal Democrats, the real winners of this round of voting. Their share of the local poll, at some 28 per cent, is their highest ever. It enabled them to make many gains over Labour and the Conservatives, especially in northern England - in addition to their spectacular victory in the Romsey by-election. Labour voters in that constituency demonstrated a new tactical sophistication in supporting the Liberal Democrats.
Mr Blair would be well-advised to take that into account as he contemplates the next general election, probably next year. On the evidence of these results, there is no sign of a significant swing from Labour to the Conservatives sufficient to deny him a second term. The problem is to convince core Labour supporters to vote. That will require tangible delivery on living standards, health and educational change and communication of a political message that Labour really can make a difference to people's lives. It will also require convincing evidence of a willingness to carry through the constitutional reform programme that remains tantalisingly incomplete. All of this would seem to point to closer Labour co-operation with the Liberal Democrats before and after the next election.