The politics of identity move more slowly and surely than national electoral cycles. The decisive victory for Mr John Howard's Liberal Party in Australia's general elections, together with its National Party coalition partners, gives them a clear majority over Labour in the federal House of Representatives. This will have significant consequences for Australia's domestic politics but it is likely to delay rather than reverse the momentum towards redefining Australian identity in Asian rather than Anglo American terms, set in train so trenchantly by Mr Howard's predecessor, Mr Paul Keating.
A tide of history is driving this change, in addition to the facts of geography. Australia's economic and political relations with its Asian neighbours have been substantially developed under successive Labour administrations, notably with Indonesia and Malaysia. This has been pursued despite tension and embarrassment among Labour activists over Indonesian repression in East Timor, and a row between Mr Keating and the Malaysian leader, Mr Mahatir, which typified the Labour leader's abrasive style. The row was made up recently, again in typical fashion. But Mr Keating may have cause in his forthcoming political retirement to reflect that the Australian electorate has been less forgiving of his verbal excesses and general political style.
In choosing Mr Howard's coalition they have opted for a very different personality and a much safer, and more traditional approach to the redefinition of their national identity. He opposed Mr Keating's proposal for a referendum before 2000 on whether Australia ought to become a republic, although he has pledged to set up a convention next year to examine constitutional reform, including a possible change in the head of state. He would prefer to see change introduced by consensus rather than through confrontation.
This is very much the perspective of middle class Anglo Saxon Australia, as distinct from the Irish, Mediterranean and, latterly, Asian immigrant communities from which Labour disproportionately draws its support it is, nonetheless, not likely to alter the basic shift in Australian orientations towards the Pacific and Asian regions. This is driven partly by realism, and partly by the dynamics of its own new multiculturalism.
The Australian elections coincided with the first summit meeting of European Union and Asian heads of state and government in Bangkok at the weekend. Australia was not represented and it is difficult to assess whether it will be in years to come but the working out of the agreements reached there will affect its interests if practical implementation matches the summit rhetoric. This was an important occasion, which rebalanced geopolitical relations between Europe and Asia after the end of the Cold War and the colonial period which preceded it. Trade and economic relations are the main substance of the discussions at this stage of their development they will require difficult decisions about access to EU markets if progress is to be made in the relationship.