Arsonists remind Assembly of task

Some groups seem to have settled into their new jobs as representatives at the Assembly faster than others

Some groups seem to have settled into their new jobs as representatives at the Assembly faster than others. Sinn Fein, for example, managed to pull off a remarkable manoeuvre during the voting for First Minister. By abstaining from the voting it kept its more hardline nationalist support on side while claiming that it was doing David Trimble a favour.

And it was. Votes from Sinn Fein would have been used against Trimble by the dissidents in the unionist camp.

It would be tempting to talk about the new Assembly like it was a soap opera with a cast of familiar characters, the good guys and bad guys, the peace-makers and the trouble-makers. It would be tempting if it weren't for the reminders we've had about how serious the job facing these people really is. Ten churches burnt in one night is not the stuff of daytime drama.

Oddly, this particular obscenity may have a positive effect. During the Assembly's first week we have seen some of the old adversarial politicking break out, including repeated attempts to resurrect decommissioning. Wednesday night's events will remind the politicians and the people of what is at stake.

READ MORE

It may also cause some participants to focus on how impractical decommissioning really is. Burning churches requires no explosives, handguns or rifles. A box of matches and some petrol will do the job, and you can't decommission either of those.

The cruder explosives can be made from relatively common household chemicals like bleach and fertiliser: restricting their sale is not on. Even if every paramilitary group handed in every weapon in its arsenal this would not prevent them from carrying out terrorist campaigns.

One final word on decommissioning. The Belfast Agreement allows two years to deal with the issue. There is no need to rush and there are more pressing and relevant problems to deal with.

Drumcree being top of the list. In almost any other country a dispute that was going to cause as much strife and ill-feeling between two groups would be resolved through mediation. Both sides would agree to sit down with an independent third party, would agree to abide by that third party's decision and would both put forward their cases. In almost any other country, but not in Northern Ireland.

We are more likely to see a serious confrontation arising out of this. Last year the RUC backed down. This time it cannot. The Parades Commission has ruled that the march should not happen along its current proposed route. That decision has to be made to stick or we can dissolve the commission right away. This is not a civil rights issue, this is about enforcing the rule of law, fairly and impartially.

Whatever happens this year, it is essential that the Assembly is operating effectively enough next year so that an amicable, or at least not openly hostile, resolution to this issue can be achieved.

The indications from the Assembly's first week are good. The First Minister and the Deputy First Minister are good choices. Both have demonstrated their rationality and reasonableness over the last year. David Trimble has taken enormous risks in order to bring the unionists into the Assembly. Seamus Mallon has shown his tolerance and patience throughout the negotiations on the Agreement.

In John Alderdice the Assembly will have a Speaker whose entire political career has been based on the middle ground. His neutrality is not open to discussion. His style as Speaker will be interesting to see. My bet is that he will be more Sean Treacy than Betty Boothroyd.

The most hopeful aspect of this week is that we have seen Trimble, Adams and Paisley sitting around one table. Paisley may try to maintain that he is only there under protest and that he has no intention of negotiating with anybody. But the fact remains that he is there.

By his pronouncements he has also proved himself a dinosaur. When the dinosaurs died out it was because of a huge change in the environment, a change they could not adapt to. We have seen a similar change in the political environment on this island, and Paisley has shown that he is incapable of adapting to it. In fact he's shown a great deal of difficulty in even recognising that it has happened.

It is also heartening to see the Women's Coalition involved. It has already demonstrated an understanding of its non-party, non-sectarian role through its attempt to sign up as nationalist and unionist.

This was not a foolish gesture, merely laying down a marker to show it would be voting according to conscience, not following slavishly one ideological stance. Its contribution can be far more significant than is currently assumed simply because of its lack of allegiance.

The next step in the process at the Assembly will be the appointment of the Cabinet. Sinn Fein has won enough seats to warrant representation and Trimble will have to make the appointment. That won't go down well with all of the participants.

But he must be getting used to that. If I were in his shoes I'd make the appointments as soon as possible. He is already receiving criticism from the No campaigners, but their condemnations will not harm him permanently. He might as well swallow all the bitter pills at once and get the outrage from the dinosaurs out of the way. It might be tempting for him to try to put off this decision, but that would be dangerous.

The various ceasefires will only stay in place as long as the Assembly is working, making decisions and getting things done. The IRA ended its ceasefire when it saw the political option grinding to a halt. We cannot allow the political process to stall again or we run the risk of a return to the violence we so want to leave behind.