BEFORE PARTY machines rumble into action and roughly eight weeks before nominations close, the presidential election is Fine Gael's to lose, given its current strength. David Norris, who has yet to be formally nominated, is the most popular candidate with the electorate, according to an Irish Times/IpsosMRBI opinion poll, with Gay Mitchell of Fine Gael taking second place and Michael D Higgins of the Labour Party coming third. Voting transfers would see Mr Higgins overtake Mr Mitchell, however, and challenge strongly to succeed President Mary McAleese.
This opinion poll represents a snapshot in time and was conducted before candidates were confirmed and political parties became fully engaged in the process. Because of that, its findings may not be reflected by the eventual result.
The exercise does, however, reflect the solid work that Mr Norris has undertaken during the past 18 months in canvassing councils for support and raising his profile with the electorate. It also suggests that concerns within Fine Gael about the capacity of Mr Mitchell to attract second preference votes were well founded. For Mr Higgins and the Labour Party, the prospect of repeating the success of Mary Robinson in 1990 has moved into the realm of the possible.
A decision by Fianna Fáil on whether it will field a candidate will not be announced until late August or early September, according to Micheál Martin.
Because Éamon Ó Cuív was the only Fianna Fáil Oireachtas member to formally confirm a willingness to run, his name was included in the survey. In the same way, Independent candidates Seán Gallagher and Mary Davis, who are seeking nominations from city and county councils, were included. All three attracted little more than 10 per cent of popular support. But that may change as their campaigns get under way and more than one-quarter of the electorate make up their minds.
The wide open nature of the race – a gap of 14 points separates the strongest from the weakest candidate and voting transfers will decide the outcome – suggests the public is waiting to hear more from the contenders about their ideas and objectives. Mr Norris, at 25 per cent, leads Mr Mitchell at 21 per cent; Mr Higgins at 18 per cent; Mr Gallagher 13 at per cent; Ms Davis at 12 per cent and Mr Ó Cuív at 11 per cent.
Obstruction by Fine Gael at local authority level has denied Mr Norris the required number of council nominations. His popularity with the public may now encourage Independent Oireachtas members to offer their support. Sinn Féin has yet to decide its position.
The presidency is one of the few institutions in Irish life that has grown in stature, public trust and importance over recent decades.
Civil rights, social responsibility and high ethical standards were promoted in a quiet but determined fashion by President McAleese and by her predecessor Mary Robinson. They supplied principled leadership in difficult times. Such public service is still required. The ambition of potential candidates should be considered in that context.