THERE HAS been a decisive swing among voters in favour of the Lisbon Treaty, according to the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll. Overall 51 per cent of the electorate say they support it in light of the commitment to allow Ireland retain an EU Commissioner, along with legal guarantees to deal with other Irish concerns on neutrality, abortion and taxation. Thirty three per cent are opposed and 16 per cent say they don’t know.
The last poll published on November 12th, 2008, showed 43 per cent in favour, 39 per cent against and 19per cent not knowing. Many younger, female and working class voters, whose No votes defeated the treaty last June, have switched in favour over these three months.
The Government is committed to have another referendum on the treaty once it ties down these conditions in negotiations with Brussels. It is still expected to be held in October, after the European and local elections on June 4th, and just before the new Commission must be appointed next November. The dramatically changed national and international economic and political circumstances since last September have clearly convinced most voters it is better to be fully part of the European Union, by a margin of 80 to 13 per cent according to this poll. In this light there is a strengthening case to hold the referendum sooner, either in April or together with the elections in June.
There should now be a sharply focused political debate on when to vote again on Lisbon, taking full account of heightened public awareness about its crucial importance for Ireland’s and Europe’s future. The European dimension is a central reality of the current economic crisis. Uncertainty over Lisbon is systematically raised in international judgments on Ireland’s financial credibility. The EU’s future efficacy in world political and economic affairs is now widely believed to depend on implementing the treaty. These traumatic experiences have been a grinding public education in contemporary political realities.
The last referendum was a highly unsatisfactory encounter between a dynamic but often ill-informed No side and a lamentably weak Yes campaign. The Government failed to convince voters that the decision could have grave economic costs and political consequences, while civil society and interest group involvement in favour of the treaty was patchy and unconvincing. In recent months these factors have been heavily underlined through the economic crisis, as Ireland was protected from its worst effects by membership of the euro. The political reordering of world affairs makes the guarantees contained in the treaty about the influence of smaller states all the more necessary to limit the power of the largest ones.
An earlier referendum should be seriously considered. The referendum should stand alone from the local and European elections. It could be conducted only if Fine Gael and the Labour Party were to set party political considerations aside in the national interest. This option should be investigated.