AMBUSHED OR MUDDLED?

Three days on, it appears that Mr Gerry Adams may not have been too far off the mark when he described the Government as having…

Three days on, it appears that Mr Gerry Adams may not have been too far off the mark when he described the Government as having been "ambushed" by Mr John Major in his House of Commons demarche on Wednesday. The details of Tuesday's and Wednesday's contacts between Dublin and London reveal a dangerous failure of understanding between the Prime Minister and the Taoiseach. Either Mr Bruton is quite muddled about what happened or there has been a calculated manipulation of timing and events by his British counterpart.

To his credit, Mr Bruton has been dignified in circumstances which are difficult if not downright humiliating. On his return from Strasbourg yesterday he declared that the two governments would continue to examine the best possible means of moving forward together. But what choice does he have, any more than the choice which faced Dr Garret FitzGerald after Mrs Thatcher's infamous "out, out, out" declamation of almost twelve years ago? He can hardly suspend diplomatic relations.

On Wednesday evening the Taoiseach appeared almost stunned by the Prime Minister's announcement of elections in Northern Ireland. There could be talks about the Prime Minister's suggestion, he ventured, affording to those who believed it to be the best course, an opportunity to persuade others to their view. Forty eight hours later and in spite of a reportedly conciliatory letter it was evident that the Prime Minister was not floating some vague idea for consideration. It was a stark choice of routes to all party talks; Washington Three or an election.

Mr Bruton's response has been to invoke the Joint Communique of November 28th last in which both governments committed themselves to the "firm aim" of achieving all party negotiations by the end of February. That commitment is there in black and white, he emphasises. Not so simple, says Mr David Trimble, backed up by the Prime Minister. That may be the aim, Mr Trimble acknowledges, but it is conditional upon solving the decommissioning question or finding some way around it. Since there can be no decommissioning - and the Mitchell report accepts that - the alternative way forward to talks must be through elections. The argument thus comes back to the vacuum at the centre of the November communique - the failure to reach a common view on Washington Three and the agreement to disagree politely while President Clinton was visiting.

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This is a potentially serious standoff between the two governments and, indeed, between the Taoiseach and the Prime Minister. It will not lead to a breakoff of communications but it does create a problem of trust which will not easily be remedied. Who or what caused Mr Major apparently to reverse course after his conversation with the Taoiseach - if indeed he did so - will undoubtedly be known in time. For the present, there will be a suspicion in Dublin that the Prime Minister caved in to some threat from the Unionists or their allies on the Tory backbenches. Alternatively, it must be that Mr Bruton did not handle the communications with Mr Major as he thinks he did and ought to have done.

The deterioration in relations between Dublin and London is one issue; the merits and demerits of an electoral exercise at this time is a separate matter. There are well grounded reservations about an election among SDLP, Sinn Fein and in Dublin. But Mr Trimble, whose brainchild it has been, has gone some distance to sketching out a model which could serve as a vehicle for all party dialogue while seeking to eschew the elements which would be unacceptable to nationalists. It would not have legislative or executive powers and it would have a fixed and short lifespan. Yesterday he spoke of it as a "peace convention". For better or worse the proposal is firmly on the table.