Party conventions in the United States are primarily about television audiences. So the Democratic convention, which opens in Chicago tonight, will commence not with a speech from a politician - a sure way to turn the viewers off - but with an address from Christopher Reeve, the Superman actor who was paralysed in a riding accident. Pathos aplenty and all of it guaranteed to deliver viewers in their millions.
The Republican convention in San Diego was orchestrated to the last detail, not so as to minimise discord but to exclude it all together. The party remains deeply divided between conservatives and, social moderates but anyone watching the proceedings on television would not have guessed it. The banality came through however; the viewing figures for Mr Dole's commendable acceptance speech were down by a third on Mr Bush's in 1992. Mr Clinton will be very conscious of this, he is a man of many talents but oratory is not one of them.
Opinion polls following the Republican convention differed on how much Mr Clinton still leads by but all were agreed that the lead had been cut in half. Mr Dole ought not to take too much comfort from this. Mr Michael Dukakis soared to a 15 point lead after his convention eight years ago; his lead lasted for just one week. Mr Dole though gave his followers what they wanted to hear, a proposed tax cut of 15 per cent across the board and he gave them the running mate of their dreams in Mr Jack Kemp. Following through may prove more difficult but Mr Dole, at least, has given his campaign momentum. All eyes will be on the Chicago Bulls' new basketball stadium to see if Mr Clinton can do likewise.
As with most US incumbents, this is Mr Clinton's election to lose. Nonetheless he will need to stir the undecided this week to be sure of his second term. He received only 43 per cent of the vote four years ago and owed his election in great part to Mr Ross Perot who took votes away from Mr Bush in spades. Mr Perot is not the force he was and following Mr Dole's conversion to tax cuts (against his better instincts) and deficit reduction, such votes as Mr Perot may get could come equally from Democrats.
In a way, Mr Clinton is fortunate that Mr Dole has chosen tax cuts as the cornerstone of his agenda because it will focus attention on the economy. The Republicans will argue that the extra growth resulting from the tax cuts will generate more Government revenue which, over time, will help to eliminate the deficit. The plan however is almost a carbon copy of the Reagan tax cuts and they didn't work. Moreover, the Democrats can point out that the economy is going well and is better left undisturbed. Unemployment has fallen to 5.4 per cent and inflation has been below three per cent for the last four years, the longest period of price stability for three decades. Tinkering may be risky.
For his part Mr Clinton ought to use the convention to explain exactly what he stands for if he has the courage. He came to office with radical Democratic ambitions but having suffered defeats and a trouncing in the mid term elections unashamedly moved to the centre to the point of stealing Republican policies. His decision last week to terminate the 60 year old federal guarantee of aid to the poor infuriated the liberal wing of his party. Senator Chris Dodd, the party chairman, called the legislation "an incredible black mark" and, rightly so. As it happens, it falls to Mr Dodd to nominate Mr Clinton on Thursday. Mr Clinton will have to take care if his party is not to emerge from Chicago just as divided as the Republicans.